PJM Cleared 55 GW for Construction. Turbine Shortages Put 2027 Delivery at Risk.
Over 55 gigawatts of new generation has cleared PJM's interconnection queue, but equipment shortages and a history of project attrition threaten delivery.
Gas turbine delivery slots are booked out through 2027, and developers are choosing to forfeit deposits rather than surrender their place in line. That was the supply chain picture OilPrice.com reported Saturday (2026-08-22), framing the physical constraint bearing most directly on PJM's power buildout. PJM Western Hub spot power was trading at $73.72/MWh on Monday (2026-08-24).8
Over 55 gigawatts of new generation has cleared PJM's interconnection queue and is nominally ready to build, Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, noted in a July (2026-07-07) commentary. Another 220 gigawatts entered the latest interconnection review cycle. When PJM asked developers whether they would enter bilateral contracts with large electricity consumers, more than 130 gigawatts came forward. The headline figures are large. The historical track record for converting queue approvals into operating capacity is not.4
Only 13% of capacity that submitted interconnection requests between 2000 and 2019 had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024, according to IEA data. The remaining 77% was withdrawn. PJM's interconnection queue has repeatedly produced approved megawatts that never became steel and wire, retreating because of permitting delays, financing gaps or failed offtake negotiations. The current cohort faces the same gauntlet on a compressed schedule.1
The demand backdrop is not contested. Data centers now account for roughly half of incremental US electricity demand growth, the IEA has reported. Global data center electricity demand grew 17% in 2025, with AI-focused facilities growing at 50%. Grid Strategies has projected the US data center market will require between 65 and 90 gigawatts of additional capacity by 2029. PJM, which covers 67 million people across the mid-Atlantic and Midwest, sits at the center of that expansion.1,2
PJM moved its backstop reliability auction forward to September 2026 after its last capacity auction produced a 6.8 gigawatt shortfall. The grid operator originally planned to run that supplemental procurement in 2027. Pulling it forward reflects a planning process that demand growth has outrun, and the board proposed a limited emergency auction to backfill the gap.3,6
On Friday (2026-08-21), Utility Dive reported that PJM is exploring a surplus interconnection pathway that would let projects access spare grid capacity without triggering full interconnection studies. Many solar projects in PJM hold capacity interconnection rights covering only 40% to 60% of nameplate capacity, leaving headroom that sits idle. The proposed pathway, not yet approved, would allow additional generation to access that spare capacity without new upgrade requirements, potentially shortcutting the queue for a subset of renewable projects.7
Bilateral contracts between data centers and generation developers represent a parallel route to financing new capacity. Canary Media reported in July (2026-07-17) that direct agreements between hyperscalers and project developers could bypass the capacity auction mechanism entirely, providing the revenue certainty that lenders and tax equity investors require. The structure has theoretical appeal. Whether it can accelerate projects through permitting and construction, rather than just through the queue, has not been demonstrated at scale.5
The turbine shortage is not a problem that contract innovation can solve. OilPrice.com reported Saturday (2026-08-22) that the 2027 delivery constraint is firm regardless of whether AI data center demand meets or falls short of current projections. If demand softens, the correction arrives as canceled slot reservations in 2028 and 2029, well after this year's capacity auctions have already repriced power for 67 million people in PJM territory. Turbines do not self-accelerate because the market needs them sooner.8
The September backstop auction will provide the first concrete signal of how PJM prices the 6.8 gigawatt gap and how aggressively developers will commit new capacity at current auction terms. Beyond that, the 55 gigawatts nominally cleared for construction still needs turbines, permits, labor and capital deployed in parallel. Any slippage in one of those inputs pushes projects past the summer 2027 window that PJM's own accelerated auction schedule implies it is trying to protect.3,6,4