PJM Dominion Winter Peak Runs 45% Above 2019 as Data Centers Drive $6 Billion Congestion Bill
EIA data shows Virginia's data center concentration has reset peak demand in PJM's Dominion zone, with transmission congestion costs rising sharply.
Winter peak demand in PJM's Dominion zone ran 45% above its 2019 level during the 2025-26 season, while summer peak demand in 2025 was 23% higher than six years earlier, according to EIA data reported by Forbes on Sunday (2026-08-23), as northern Virginia's data center buildout continues to reshape load patterns across America's largest grid.6
Virginia commercial electricity sales climbed by nearly 30 million megawatt-hours between 2019 and 2025, the EIA said, faster than any state except Texas, which is far larger in geographic and economic terms. The EIA attributed most of that growth to the state's concentration of data centers. Virginia's surge came from a geographically narrow base; Northern Virginia alone accounts for the bulk of the new demand.5,6
The cost of moving that power is rising fast. Transmission congestion charges across PJM jumped 43% in the first half of 2026, reaching $6 billion, with Northern Virginia among the most constrained areas. That is a direct cost to load-serving entities, and it arrived before a large portion of the queued data center capacity has reached commercial operation.6
PJM's own forward projections show why the congestion problem may compound. The grid operator expects summer peak demand in the Dominion region to grow at an average of 5.4% annually over the next decade, driven by continued data center development. At that rate, peak demand in the zone would roughly double within the planning period.6
The national numbers frame the scale differently. A Department of Energy-supported analysis estimated that data centers consumed roughly 4.4% of U.S. electricity in 2023. By 2028, that share could reach between 6.7% and 12%, depending on efficiency gains and deployment pace. The gap between those two endpoints is wide enough to determine whether grid investment needs in constrained regions are manageable or severe.6
S&P Global Energy projects worldwide data center electricity demand growing at 12% to 16% annually between 2025 and 2030. Under one scenario, global data center power consumption would reach roughly 1,550 terawatt-hours by 2030, nearly twice the 2025 level and roughly equivalent to the projected electricity use of all of Latin America. Under that scenario, data centers would account for about 6% of global electricity consumption.6
PJM said in November 2025 that it had sufficient resources to serve its 67 million customers under expected conditions. The qualifier matters: reserve margins continue to tighten, and generator performance is crucial.2 The stress showed during the week of June 29 (2026-06-29), when demand surged to roughly 163 gigawatts, approaching an all-time record, with data centers identified as a contributing factor.3
New capacity is being added, but the composition matters. NERC's winter reliability assessment projected total bulk power system capacity rising by 20.2 gigawatts, or 2.5%, over the prior winter's forecast, with battery storage adding approximately 19,659 megawatts of nameplate capacity and natural gas-fired generation contributing further. Revised valuations of wind resources at peak demand hours partially offset those gains. The net 9,445-megawatt increase in usable peak capacity was led by demand response programs, not new generation — a reliability distinction that grid operators and capacity market participants track carefully.1
EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook from July 2 (2026-07-02) projected U.S. wholesale electricity prices averaging $45 per megawatt-hour this summer, a $4/MWh decline from last year's level. That composite figure is a load-weighted average across multiple hubs; load-serving entities in Northern Virginia bearing elevated congestion charges face a materially different effective cost.4
The PJM Western Hub real-time price on Sunday (2026-08-23) was $73.72 per megawatt-hour. Spot levels aside, the trajectory of congestion costs is the more significant variable for anyone holding positions tied to Northern Virginia load. The $6 billion H1 2026 congestion figure accumulated while substantial queued data center capacity remained offline. How much of that pipeline reaches commercial operation before year-end, and on what interconnection timeline, sets the direction of costs through 2027.6,2