US LNG Exporters Run Flat Out as Henry Hub Slips and International Prices Hold
Near-maximum utilization at US terminals and a stubbornly wide trans-Pacific spread are testing whether domestic production growth can keep pace with export demand.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month slipped to $2.78 per million British thermal units on Monday (2026-08-24), down 0.71% on the session, while JKM Asian LNG held at $22.94/MMBtu — a gap of more than $20 that has kept US LNG export terminals running near capacity since the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28, 2026. [Live prices]
EIA data show price spreads between US and international gas markets remain wider than before the Hormuz disruption, driven by near-maximum utilization rates at US LNG export facilities. Six months on from the closure, the market has not corrected that spread.3
The immediate post-closure repricing was sharp. ICE Endex TTF front-month futures climbed to $14.80/MMBtu in the weeks following February 28, 2026, according to EIA, as Europe scrambled to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supply.2 ICE Endex TTF front-month was trading at €65.83/MWh on Monday (2026-08-24) morning, well above pre-crisis levels.
Golden Pass LNG shipped its first cargo on April 22, 2026, adding to the US export fleet as demand for American supply surged. EIA classified it among the newest US LNG export terminals.5 More capacity is still in progress: oilprice.com reported on July 24, 2026 (2026-07-24) that the 2025 expansion in US LNG supply was not a one-time event and that further facilities remain in the development pipeline.7
EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook projected US LNG gross exports averaging 16.7 billion cubic feet per day in the third quarter of 2026, rising to 18.0 Bcf/d in the fourth quarter and reaching 18.7 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2027, according to Rigzone's July 2026 (2026-07-20) reporting on the data.6 Those numbers assume sustained high utilization at existing terminals and timely ramp-up at newer ones, including Corpus Christi and Plaquemines.
Production growth is supporting the export volumes, though the trajectory is measured. Lower 48 marketed gas output averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% from the same quarter in 2025, EIA data show.1 EIA forecast full-year 2026 production growth at 3% versus 2025, led by Permian Basin output reaching 29.2 Bcf/d — 6% above 2025 levels — with Haynesville shale adding 6% this year and 8% in 2027.1
The storage position complicates that supply picture. EIA estimated more than 2,020 billion cubic feet was withdrawn from storage over the November 2025 through March 2026 heating season, leaving inventories to be rebuilt into a period of persistent export pull.1 Rebuilding those buffers while export terminals operate near capacity puts steady pressure on the domestic supply balance.
Investing.com cited analyst views in May 2026 (2026-05) that Henry Hub could grind toward $3.20 to $3.50 even without further geopolitical catalysts. The opposing scenario — cooler-than-normal summer temperatures allowing storage builds to resume — would push prices back toward $2.50.4 At $2.78 on Monday (2026-08-24), the front-month sits between those two scenarios.
Daniel Yergin told Rigzone on July 20, 2026 (2026-07-20) that US LNG growth was exceeding all expectations. The export volume projections largely bear that out. But whether Permian production delivers EIA's 10% growth target for 2027 — and whether Haynesville output ramps fast enough to absorb rising export demand without pushing Henry Hub materially higher — has yet to be demonstrated at these utilization levels.6,1
For gas traders, the signal to monitor is NYMEX Henry Hub front-month's trajectory through the remaining summer cooling season. A sustained move above $3.00 would not close the JKM arbitrage, which remains more than $20 wide, but it would put pressure on domestic consumers and raise questions about how long US production growth can underwrite export volumes at this pace without a meaningful domestic price response.4,6