European LNG Imports Forecast at 10.53 Million Tons in October as Storage Deficit Deepens
EU gas storage sits at a five-year seasonal low, with analysts placing likely fill at 75-77% by November 1 against the bloc's 90% statutory target.
European LNG arrivals are tracking toward 7.98 million tons for September and forecast at up to 10.53 million tons in October, as EU gas storage remains substantially below the five-year seasonal average with the bloc's 90% fill target due November 1. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas stood at €79.54/MWh at Friday's (2026-09-19) close, having touched around €81/MWh on Tuesday (2026-09-15) when European benchmark gas contracts rose by as much as 4%, close to prices last seen during the 2022 energy crisis.5,2
The storage deficit underlying those prices traces to six months of disruption to Qatari LNG exports. After the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February (2026), Qatar's LNG shipments fell by 96%, Reuters reported. Qatar had been one of Europe's significant seaborne gas suppliers before the blockade. That near-total halt has forced European buyers to pursue volumes from the Atlantic basin at prices reflecting the severity of the shortage.3
EU gas storage fell to its lowest mid-August (2026-08-18) level in five years. Analysts do not expect the EU to reach its 90% storage target by November 1. Ole Dramhal, senior analyst at Rystad Energy Gas and LNG Markets, placed the base-case outcome at around 75% by that date; Ronald Pinto, principal insight analyst at Kpler LNG and Natural Gas, put the figure at about 77%. Both fall well short of what the EU's storage regulation requires.2
The October LNG forecast of 10.53 million tons would represent a 32% increase from September's 7.98 million tons. Whether cargoes materialise at that rate depends on where they route. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $27.51/MMBtu at Friday's (2026-09-19) close. Asian utilities entering winter are pulling on the same pool of Atlantic LNG supply, and when the JKM-TTF spread favours Asia on a heat-content equivalent basis, cargoes divert east.4
U.S. exporters are the main alternative source. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas stood at $2.91/MMBtu at Saturday's (2026-09-20) reference level, keeping U.S. liquefaction economics firmly in the money. The EIA forecast in May that L48 marketed natural gas production would grow 3% in 2026 compared with 2025, driven by Permian output expected at 29.2 Bcf/d — 6% above 2025 levels. Haynesville production was forecast to grow 6% this year and 8% next year. That supply base supports sustained Atlantic LNG export volumes reaching European terminals through autumn.1
Yet low U.S. gas prices and growing production do not automatically translate into European arrivals. Atlantic LNG arbitrage economics also depend on JKM, shipping costs, and available regasification capacity. European storage incentives are strong, but so is Asian demand, and the two regions are competing for winter supply from the same set of producers at the same time.4,1
With Rystad and Kpler both placing likely EU storage at 75-77% by November 1, Europe enters the heating season with a buffer 13 to 15 percentage points below the statutory target. That shortfall is wider than recent winters. A mild autumn or a Strait of Hormuz reopening would change the calculus quickly. But it leaves little room if temperatures run colder than normal or if further LNG supply disruptions emerge from the Middle East.2,3
The October import figure of 10.53 million tons, if achieved, would show Europe pulling effectively from the Atlantic market. If arrivals fall short, the gap to the November 1 storage target widens further. Weekly LNG terminal discharge data across northwest Europe through October, and any change in Qatari export volumes, are the near-term indicators that will settle the question.3,2