Europe and Asia Enter Winter LNG Bidding Season With Storage Near Two-Decade Lows
Welligence sees global gas prices supported through year-end as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force European and Asian buyers to compete for the same constrained supply pool.
ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €79.54/MWh at Thursday's close (2026-09-18), up 4.28% on the session, while THE M+1 closed at €80.70/MWh, gaining 4.56%. The moves extended a rally tied to European storage at its lowest in nearly two decades and persistent disruptions to Middle East LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz.7,6
A Welligence analyst told Montel on Tuesday (2026-09-15) that global gas prices were likely to remain supported until the end of the year. Asian and European buyers are now entering their peak winter purchasing periods simultaneously, competing for a supply pool that Middle East shipping disruptions have already shrunk.7,3
European gas stocks have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly two decades, OilPrice.com reported on September 3 (2026-09-03). That leaves utilities and gas merchants with far less buffer than they carried in 2024 and 2025, when Europe had rebuilt reserves after losing Russian pipeline supply. A cold snap in October or November could draw down what remains with little prospect of restocking before spring.7
The supply crunch traces back to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which halted roughly 20% of daily global LNG flows, including shipments from Qatar and the UAE. That loss fell most heavily on European importers, who had spent the past two years reorienting supply chains away from Russian gas and had come to rely on steady Gulf LNG deliveries.1,3
The shortfall shows clearly in import data. Europe took in 6.2 million tonnes of LNG in July, according to Kpler data, the lowest July total since 2021.4 European buyers had initially adopted a wait-and-see approach to procurement earlier in the year, Daily Sabah reported on August 18 (2026-08-18), hoping the disruption would ease. It has not.3
US exporters have ramped supply to partially fill the void. American firms shipped more than 73 million tonnes of LNG in the first seven months of 2026, up 23% from the same period in 2025, Kpler data show.5 But the destination of those cargoes is governed by the Atlantic-to-Pacific arbitrage. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $27.51/MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-09-19), against NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.91/MMBtu — a spread that continues to pull US supply toward Asia, requiring European buyers to bid higher to divert cargoes westward.4
ICIS told Montel on Thursday (2026-06-11) that European gas prices would need to rise to attract US LNG cargoes away from Asia, and flagged that El Niño weather conditions could push Asian cooling and heating demand higher still, tightening competition for available supply.2,1
Baird Maritime reported on August 24 (2026-08-24) that US LNG producers risk pricing out cost-sensitive buyers as key forward gas and LNG prices in Europe and Asia, markets that together account for more than 80% of US LNG shipments, have climbed sharply. Record export volumes have tightened global balances, but sustained high prices may yet curb orders from buyers with the least capacity to absorb them.4,5
For traders, the Strait of Hormuz remains the central pressure point. Any escalation in shipping disruptions through the end of September (2026-09-30), or a colder-than-forecast start to winter across northern Europe or northeast Asia, could push ICE Endex TTF front-month through the €80/MWh mark that THE M+1 already crossed at Thursday's close (2026-09-18). European storage will not recover before spring. Until then, price is doing the rationing.7,1