TTF Climbs to €79.54 as Hormuz Disruption Keeps Atlantic Gas Prices Split
Six months after Qatar's Ras Laffan output was cut, European and Asian LNG benchmarks remain far above US levels with no rapid rebalancing in sight.
ICE Endex TTF front-month closed Friday (2026-09-18) at €79.54 per megawatt-hour, up 4.3% on the session, while NYMEX Henry Hub front-month sat at $2.91 per MMBtu as markets entered the September 19 weekend. Six months into the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the premium European and Asian buyers pay over US domestic gas shows no sign of rapid compression.2
The Strait closed on February 28, cutting off more than 10 billion cubic feet per day of global LNG supply (roughly 20% of the global total), most of it from Qatar's Ras Laffan complex, EIA data show. QatarEnergy's chief executive said attacks on Qatari liquefaction facilities took out 17% of the country's LNG export capacity. European and Asian buyers had no fast substitute.2,1
US gas markets moved in the opposite direction. Henry Hub fell 9% in the weeks after the closure, per EIA data, as American LNG export terminals could not absorb redirected demand and domestic supply stayed ample. Seasonal maintenance cut flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday (2026-06-02) to 16.9 bcf, the lowest in recent weeks, boosting domestic stockpiles that were already above the five-year average.2,3
TTF had risen to $14.80 per MMBtu for the week ending April 24, 35% above pre-closure levels, EIA data show, as European buyers competed for spot cargoes. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, closed September 19 at $27.51 per MMBtu, continuing to reflect tightness in Pacific supply. The spread between US and non-US gas prices has not meaningfully closed.2
US export infrastructure was running hard. Terminal capacity utilization reached 94% of maximum DOE-approved export levels in March, up from 91% in February, EIA data show. Running near the physical ceiling meant American gas could not easily fill the hole left by Ras Laffan. On Wednesday (2026-07-08), the NYMEX August natural gas contract settled down 1.62%, erasing a 1.5-week high, as traders positioned for a larger-than-normal build in US weekly inventories already above the five-year average.2,6
Qatar has been working to restore supply. Kpler and LSEG data showed the LNG tanker Disha, chartered by India's Petronet, crossing the Strait of Hormuz with a cargo loaded at Ras Laffan on March 1-2, the vessel having been held west of the Strait for months. Qatari export volumes rose as more tankers followed. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum's secretary general said in late June (2026-06-24) that markets were on course to return to balance in the third quarter if the Strait remained open.4,5,8
That Q3 rebalancing has not fully materialized. TTF's 4.3% gain on Friday (2026-09-18) suggests persistent anxiety about supply security. S&P Global reported in July (2026-07-15) that the Iran conflict was driving increased investment in US LNG export infrastructure, with buyers seeking supply routes that bypass Hormuz. New US capacity takes years to build, and near-term utilization near maximum levels means little incremental export volume is available now.8,7,2
Crude markets have eased more decisively than gas. ICE Brent crude briefly touched $119 per barrel on May 14 (2026-05-14) before settling at $108.65 after Israel signaled involvement in reopening the passageway, and has continued to fall since. By September 19, Brent was trading at $103.37 per barrel and WTI at $99.53. European gas has not tracked the crude move lower.1
Watch whether Qatar's Ras Laffan sustains full output through the autumn. European storage injection season is drawing to a close, and any fresh disruption at the Strait would find the market entering winter draws with considerably less cushion than the GECF anticipated when it made its Q3 balance forecast in June (2026-06-24).8,5