European LNG Imports Near Annual Record With Four Months Still to Run
Kpler data cited by Reuters show September and October purchases accelerating as EU storage sits well below winter targets and spot prices remain 150% above February levels.
European LNG imports are running ahead of last year's record pace. Kpler data, cited by Reuters analyst Clyde Russell during the week of September 14 (2026-09-14), show September volumes on track to reach 7.98 million tons, with October projected to climb further to 10.53 million tons as storage-driven demand keeps European buyers active in a market where Asian appetite is fading.5
Through August, Europe had already absorbed 117.01 million tons of LNG in 2026, against a full-year record of 125.20 million tons set in 2025, Kpler data show. Four months remain. Kpler now expects annual imports to exceed that prior record.5
The storage deficit is forcing the pace. EU gas storage fell to its lowest mid-August level in five years, analysts said in reporting from August 18 (2026-08-18), with the bloc widely expected to miss its 90% fill target by November 1. Rystad Energy senior analyst Ole Dramhal puts November 1 storage at around 75% in his base case. Ronald Pinto, principal insight analyst at Kpler, expects approximately 77%, the Daily Sabah reported on August 18 (2026-08-18). At those levels, European utilities enter the heating season with far less buffer than in most recent years.4
None of this comes cheap. LNG spot prices have surged 150% since February 2026, Oilprice.com reported on September 19 (2026-09-19), citing the onset of US and Israeli military action against Iran as the catalyst. ICE Endex TTF front-month closed at €79.54 per megawatt-hour on September 19.5
Asian demand is retreating at a convenient moment for European buyers. Kpler estimates September flows to Asia at 20.09 million tons, down from 22.27 million tons in September 2025 and from 22.25 million tons in August 2026, Russell reported during the week of September 14. The seasonal pullback from Asia's summer peak is redirecting cargoes toward the Atlantic basin. But the freed volumes do not cover the Qatari shortfall.5
Qatar's force majeure, declared earlier this year, has removed an estimated 12.8 million tons annually from global supply — a figure the country's energy minister disclosed. Middle Eastern LNG has struggled more broadly: Bruegel's European gas imports tracker, updated through April 2026, recorded flows from the region at their lowest since 2019.5,2
The swing between regions was sharp in the summer. Asia's LNG imports were heading for a six-month high in July 2026 while Europe's dropped to a near two-year low, The Star reported on July 13 (2026-07-13). European storage refilling slowed markedly during that stretch, deepening the deficit that now requires accelerated purchasing through year-end.3
Russia offers little structural offset. Russian pipeline gas now accounts for just 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021. Moscow's economy ministry projects pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union to fall 10.7% this year to 72 billion cubic metres, according to documents cited by Worldports.org. Russian LNG exports are edging up just 3% this year to 35.7 million metric tons, still short of earlier government projections.1
Europe's purchasing posture reflects the arithmetic. Seventeen million tons of imports are needed over the final four months to clear 2025's record. Brussels has pushed member states to sustain volumes, and on current trajectory the target looks achievable if supply access holds.5
JKM, the Asian LNG spot benchmark, closed at $27.51 per MMBtu on September 20 (2026-09-20). As Asian utilities emerge from the summer and begin their own winter replenishment cycle, any sustained recovery in Asian spot demand would compress cargo availability and test how far European buyers can absorb further price pressure on top of a TTF already trading near multi-year highs. Rystad's 75% storage base case gives a hard floor for European purchasing urgency — the question is whether cargo supply keeps pace or forces the market to choose.5,4