European Gas Hits Highest Since 2022 as Analysts Flag 60% UK Winter Spike Risk
EU storage running 12 percentage points behind last year and Gulf LNG flows down 85% leave British gas prices exposed to a severe cold-snap rally.
ICE Endex TTF front-month settled at €79.54/MWh on Friday (2026-09-18), up 4.28% on the session and above the €75 level that European benchmark gas prices had not reached since late 2022. British wholesale gas contracts moved higher alongside TTF, according to Yahoo Finance reporting on September 8 (2026-09-08). Analysts told Montel on September 9 (2026-09-09) that a prolonged UK cold snap could push prices 60% above current levels, taking them to their highest point since the 2022 energy crisis.7,6
The exposure is structural and grounded in storage data. Gas Infrastructure Europe figures show EU storage sites at around 66% full as of early September (2026-09-07), 12 percentage points below last year's level and the lowest for that point in the calendar in 15 years. Storage in 2025 peaked at 83%, or roughly 85 billion cubic metres; ROI estimates put this year's seasonal peak at only 70% to 75%.5
Germany carries the sharpest deficit. Its storage network, the largest in Europe, was only 54% full, while the Netherlands stood at 48% of capacity, Reuters reported. Wood Mackenzie's David Lewis called Europe's storage position a "very risky situation." The EU had originally set a 90% fill target by November but relaxed that goal to 80% by December, Reuters reported, to reduce the risk that aggressive pre-winter buying would amplify price pressure ahead of the cold season.5,2
The root cause is a collapse in Gulf LNG supply. Exports from the region, primarily Qatar and the UAE, fell more than 85% between March and August 2026 compared with a year earlier, Kpler data show. The International Energy Agency put growth in LNG supply outside the Gulf at 18%, or about 27 billion cubic metres, for the year to end-June, enough to offset roughly 75% of those Middle East losses but leaving a residual gap that weak storage now reflects.5
Goldman Sachs argued in late August (2026-08-24) that prices needed to keep rising toward December to incentivise sufficient restocking, on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted and Asian LNG demand stayed elevated. JKM Asian LNG spot reached $27.51/MMBtu on September 19 (2026-09-19), keeping the Atlantic LNG arbitrage weighted toward Asia and constraining Europe's access to flexible cargoes. The bank's base case had been €50/MWh; current prices have already cleared that target by a wide margin.3
But not every analyst expects a return to 2022's record highs. Analysts on Montel's Plugged In podcast on August 27 (2026-08-27) argued that expanded European LNG import capacity, built in direct response to the 2022 crisis, now limits how far prices can climb. Greater regasification throughput gives buyers options that did not exist four years ago, they said, even with storage starting the winter at comparable depths.4
Europe already paid a heavy price for the underlying supply disruption in 2025. The continent's gas bill reached €117 billion that year, according to Bruegel estimates, even as consumption ran roughly 17% below pre-crisis levels. Higher unit prices drove costs, not higher volumes — and with storage deficits running deeper again, that dynamic looks set to repeat.5
With storage unlikely to breach 75% before winter drawdowns begin, weather has become the dominant variable. LNG cargo arrivals into northwest European terminals in October, and whether early-winter temperatures across the UK and the continent sustain elevated demand, are now the most closely watched signals for any position in front-month NBP or TTF contracts.7,1