Bloomberg Economics Projects 25% Jump in UK Household Energy Bills for Q1 2027
Middle East supply disruptions have pushed ICE Endex TTF front-month some 30% above July's four-month high, with Bloomberg Economics projecting a 25% Q1 2027 bill spike.
Bloomberg Economics this week (week of 2026-09-14) forecast UK household energy bills will jump 25% in the January-to-March 2027 quarter, pointing to surging international gas prices as the Middle East conflict escalates. ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was at €78.17 per megawatt-hour on Thursday (2026-09-17). In mid-July (2026-07-19), news reports described €60 per megawatt-hour as a fresh four-month high for the Dutch benchmark. The contract has since risen by roughly 30%.6,7
The scale of the underlying supply shock is large. In mid-March 2026, the International Energy Agency estimated that around 20 million barrels of oil per day had been affected by the collapse of Hormuz shipping traffic. Gulf producers, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain, collectively cut output by at least 10 million barrels per day, according to the UK Parliament's House of Commons Library. UK wholesale natural gas prices rose roughly 75% between late February and March 23, 2026.1,3
The EIA's June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook assumed the Strait of Hormuz would remain effectively closed in the near term, with oil shipments resuming in Q3 2026. That window closes September 30, 2026. ICE Brent crude front-month was at $104.82 per barrel on Thursday (2026-09-17), essentially unchanged on the day.4
British households had watched the bill outlook deteriorate steadily before Bloomberg Economics published its Q1 2027 estimate. Cornwall Insight, in August 2026, forecast bills would rise 4% from October to their highest level since the summer of 2023, as the conflict tightened global gas supply and made European restocking "more difficult and expensive." That followed an earlier June 2026 Cornwall Insight projection for a 0.5% fall to £1,849 a year under the October price cap.7,5
The IMF has warned that the UK is among the most exposed European economies to the conflict's energy spillovers, with higher prices feeding directly into weaker growth and renewed household pressure. Petrol prices rose 14 pence a litre (roughly 10%) following the conflict's escalation, according to parliamentary data.2,1
Europe's winter supply position faces additional strain from the LNG side. Analysts at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services said the conflict is delaying the expected recovery of Qatari LNG deliveries to European terminals, squeezing a continent that relies heavily on spot LNG purchases during peak demand. JKM Asian LNG was at $27.22 per MMBtu on Thursday (2026-09-17), signalling that Asian buyers are competing hard for the same cargoes.6
UK consumer price inflation reached 2.9% in July 2026, its highest in four months, with energy bills cited as a driver. Analysts said at the time that this could mark the beginning of a new inflationary phase, given that gas prices have continued climbing since.7
Cornwall Insight's October estimate points to a 4% increase, lifting annual bills to the highest since summer 2023. Bloomberg Economics' Q1 2027 figure is roughly six times larger in percentage terms. ICE Endex TTF front-month, already running well above July's four-month high, supports the direction of the larger forecast, even if the precise magnitude remains uncertain.7,5,6
Qatar's LNG recovery schedule will shape how tight European gas markets look by November. ICIS said that schedule is already being delayed by the conflict. Every additional week of Hormuz closure beyond the EIA's Q3 2026 assumption narrows the margin for European storage operators still completing their pre-winter fill.4,6