UAE Leads Hormuz Oil Revival as Qatar and Kuwait Recover Lost Volumes
Total flows through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly doubled since mid-July, driven by UAE shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed to roughly 7-8 million barrels per day, up from approximately 4 million bpd in mid-July, according to Bloomberg's trading sources — a recovery built largely on UAE operations that have taken on more risk than any other Gulf producer during the standoff.5
The scale of the shortfall makes even partial recovery significant. Traffic at Hormuz dropped to a weekly low on Tuesday (2026-08-11), shipping data showed, as vessel owners continued to avoid the chokepoint amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations on any possible reopening. Before the war, some 20 million barrels per day moved through the strait. Even at 7-8 million bpd, flows sit at less than half normal throughput.4
ADNOC has been the most aggressive seller through the crisis. Since the start of June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels across an unprecedented seven tenders, traders familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. The supertanker Romania Prosperity was among the vessels appearing in the strait as UAE exports pushed through despite the risks.3
Qatar and Kuwait have followed, though more slowly. Both countries have restored crude exports to 70% of pre-war levels by adopting the UAE's playbook — shuttle services and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, which move barrels to waiting vessels beyond the contested chokepoint. Before the conflict, Qatar and Kuwait collectively exported around 2 million bpd through Hormuz. Getting back to 70% of that volume is meaningful, but it leaves a significant shortfall.5
Dark crossings — vessels transiting without standard tracking — have also picked up after recent strikes, according to people familiar with the matter. The practice supplements the shuttle operations and adds volumes that official shipping data may not fully capture. How durable that supply line is depends on the security environment remaining stable enough for crew and insurers to accept the risk.3
The UAE has simultaneously been accelerating infrastructure that would reduce Hormuz dependence entirely. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said on Wednesday (2026-05-20) that the country had completed nearly 50% of a second bypass pipeline. The existing Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to Fujairah carries up to 1.8 million bpd, but that ceiling limits how much can be redirected overland.1
The cost of the closure so far is substantial. Al Jaber put cumulative lost oil supply at more than 1 billion barrels since the strait closed, with roughly 100 million additional barrels lost for every week it stays shut. Even if a deal were reached immediately, he said it would take at least four months to ramp flows back to 80% of pre-war levels. Infrastructure, crews, insurance coverage and inspection regimes would all need to be rebuilt.1
ICE Brent crude front-month settled at $107.74 per barrel at the September 13 close, up 3.28% on the session. Dubai crude — more directly relevant to Gulf export pricing — stood at $114.91 per barrel at the same close, a premium over Brent that reflects tightness in Middle Eastern grades Asian buyers depend on most. Platts JKM LNG front-month settled at $24.88 per MMBtu, consistent with LNG replacing pipeline gas where crude-linked supply has thinned.
The IEA has noted that existing pipeline capacity across the Gulf cannot replace normal Hormuz volumes, and new pipeline projects take years and billions of dollars to complete. The UAE's second bypass pipeline, at 50% construction, is not a near-term solution. Gulf states more broadly are reassessing their security arrangements, according to reporting by the Straits Times, but options are constrained by both geography and timeline.6,2
The stop-start nature of U.S.-Iran negotiations over recent months means traders cannot price a clean reopening. A deal to reopen the strait, if reached, would likely boost volumes leaving the Persian Gulf — but the sequence of physical recovery Al Jaber outlined suggests price relief from any agreement would be delayed by months, not days.3,1
What traders are watching in the days ahead is whether dark-crossing activity and shuttle operations hold at current volumes, or whether another round of strikes forces another retreat. At 7-8 million bpd, the system is managing. Any drop back toward the 4 million bpd trough of mid-July would test how much of the current price level reflects supply actually moving versus supply assumed to be moving.5,3