Merz Weakened by Electoral Losses as Hormuz Closure Tests European Energy Supply
Germany's least popular modern chancellor faces tightening LNG markets and a credible threat of physical gas supply shortfalls if the strait stays shut.
Friedrich Merz's approval rating stood at roughly 15% before his party absorbed a regional election defeat on Sunday (2026-09-06) — the lowest of any modern German chancellor and narrowly ahead of Olaf Scholz's own nadir for that distinction, according to reporting published Saturday (2026-09-12).5
The timing is poor. EIA data show oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to approximately 4.9 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026, down from 21.6 million two quarters earlier, with LNG shipments through the strait all but ceasing. In 2024, Hormuz carried about 20 million barrels per day, roughly a fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption, plus about one-fifth of the world's traded LNG, most of it Qatari.4
The inventory drawdown since the conflict began has been severe. OGJ data show observable global oil stocks fell by a cumulative 246 million barrels: a 129 million-barrel draw in March 2026 followed by another 117 million barrels in April, equivalent to about 3.9 million barrels per day of sustained supply loss. Excluding barrels stranded in Gulf storage or aboard tankers unable to transit the strait, the effective depletion ran deeper still. Global refinery crude runs in 2026 are now expected to average around 82 million barrels per day, nearly 1.6 million below 2025 levels, OGJ reported.2
ICE Brent crude front-month was priced at $104.32 a barrel as of 2026-09-13, with Dubai crude sitting at $114.91. JKM, the Asian spot LNG benchmark, stood at $24.88 per million British thermal units as of 2026-09-13. In mid-July (2026-07-16), traders told Bloomberg that Asian LNG spot prices had surged 10% in a single week to their highest level since March, touching $20.2 per million British thermal units as Hormuz re-escalation intensified.3
JKM's advance since July puts pressure on the Atlantic LNG arbitrage. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €79.51 per megawatt-hour as of 2026-09-13. When Asian spot prices run materially ahead of European hub levels, cargoes flow east. European utilities have limited ability to consistently outbid Asian buyers competing for the same constrained global LNG pool.3
Europe's central question is whether the disruption stays price-led or becomes volume-led. A commodities investment manager told Montel's German Energy Day on Thursday (2026-05-21) that the current energy price shock will turn into a physical supply crisis if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for another year. Price signals reshape demand. Supply gaps work differently.1
Alternative pipeline routes offer limited substitution. Azerbaijan shipped about 12.8 billion cubic meters to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor in 2025, little changed from a year earlier, against Europe's approximately 335 billion cubic meters of annual consumption, according to War on the Rocks. The frequently cited ceiling of expanding the Trans-Anatolian pipeline to 31 billion cubic meters is engineering headroom, not a funded plan.4
Aviation is a more immediate pressure. Around 75% of Europe's jet fuel imports come from the Middle East Gulf, meaning the Hormuz closure is an active supply shock for European carriers, not a futures risk, according to OGJ.2
Germany's political condition matters here because Berlin remains the de facto anchor for coordinated European energy responses: emergency LNG procurement frameworks, strategic reserve policy, bilateral supply agreements. At 15% approval following the September (2026-09-06) regional results, Merz's government is governing with a fractured mandate. Emergency energy legislation of the kind a prolonged Hormuz closure would demand does not get easier to pass as governments weaken.5,1
The cleaner forward signal is the JKM-TTF spread. With Asian LNG spot running well ahead of European hub levels and global refinery runs already nearly 1.6 million barrels per day below 2025 levels, the squeeze on available winter cargoes intensifies. Azerbaijan's pipeline offers no meaningful offset. Whether European gas storage builds stall before winter demand hits will tell traders more about the severity of the next phase than any political statement out of Berlin.4,2,3