Houthi Advance on Mokha Tightens Bab el-Mandeb Risk as Brent Posts Biggest Weekly Gain Since July
ICE Brent front-month surged 8.7% on the week before a Friday pullback, with Houthi advances threatening a Red Sea route carrying 7 million barrels per day.
ICE Brent crude for November delivery posted its largest weekly gain since July before settling 2.8% lower at $104.61 a barrel at Friday's (2026-09-12) close, as Houthi forces consolidated control of the Yemeni port of Mokha and signaled an intent to extend their reach toward the Bab el-Mandeb strait's narrowest section. Foreign Policy reported on Thursday (2026-09-10) that Mokha's position "would allow the group to project its disruptive capabilities further south towards the narrowest points of the waterway."6,3
The Bab el-Mandeb has become progressively more important to global oil flows since the Strait of Hormuz closed to normal traffic. Standard Chartered estimated that roughly 7 million barrels per day were moving through the strait before the current wave of Houthi attacks — Saudi crude rerouted through the Red Sea port of Yanbu combined with southbound Suez Canal flows. Saudi Arabia had already shifted an estimated 70-75% of its crude exports through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu as Arabian Gulf transits were blocked, pushing loadings there to approximately 4.5 million barrels per day, Standard Chartered calculated.2
European gas markets tracked crude higher during the week. ICE Endex TTF front-month was last quoted at €79.51 per megawatt-hour in data as of 2026-09-13, with Rigzone reporting that European natural gas prices had rallied alongside crude. The link runs through Atlantic LNG arbitrage: when Middle East suppliers face constrained transits through Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb, longer voyages raise freight costs and reduce European spot availability.6,4
Those supply pressures arrive against a strained storage backdrop. Equinor, Europe's largest natural gas supplier, warned earlier this year that the continent would not be able to replenish gas inventories to the targeted 80% filling level before winter, with storage running at just 34% full at the time of that assessment.1
OPEC production data underline the wider supply constraints. A Reuters survey found that the group's output fell 640,000 barrels per day in August to 19.71 million barrels per day, weighed down by Saudi disruptions and U.S. sanctions on Iran.4
NYMEX WTI for October delivery fell 2.4% to settle at $100.05 a barrel at Friday's (2026-09-12) close, mirroring Brent's single-session pullback while still closing the week substantially above where it opened at the start of the week.6
Strait of Hormuz traffic remains heavily constrained, fxempire.com reported on Thursday (2026-09-10), keeping disruption risk elevated for both crude and LNG flows. The Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb developments add a second potential bottleneck for Middle Eastern energy exports — a dual-chokepoint environment that Standard Chartered has described as requiring markets to reprice geopolitical risk across the region, not just at Hormuz.4,2
Refined products amplified crude's weekly move. Diesel posted steeper percentage gains than crude during the week, compounded by the Russia-Ukraine war, Rigzone reported. Heating oil futures stood at $4.99 per gallon in data as of 2026-09-13.6
Brent crude has risen close to 80% since the start of 2026, Bluewin reported, though it remains below its wartime peak of just above $126 a barrel reached in April, Rigzone noted. Friday's (2026-09-12) November settlement left the contract roughly $21 below that high.5,6
With an estimated 4.5 million barrels per day of Saudi exports transiting the Bab el-Mandeb from Yanbu, and European gas storage entering autumn well short of the 80% winter readiness target, any confirmed Houthi attack south of Mokha could accelerate moves in both the ICE Brent November contract and the ICE Endex TTF front-month before cold-weather demand begins in earnest.2,1,3