US-Iran Attacks on Shipping Drive ICE Brent to $104 as Hormuz Supply Risk Rebuilds
ICE Brent front-month has risen nearly 30% from early August 2026 lows after fresh US-Iran escalation revived tanker disruption risk in the Strait of Hormuz.
ICE Brent crude front-month crossed $100 a barrel on September 9 (2026-09-09) following a fresh escalation in the US-Iran conflict since late August that raised new concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.7 By Thursday September 10 (2026-09-10), the contract gained 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $101.61 by 08:14 GMT, while NYMEX WTI front-month added 49 cents, or 0.51%, to $96.54.6 As of Sunday September 13 (2026-09-13), with markets closed for the weekend, ICE Brent front-month stood at $104.32.
The move has been sharp. Brent has risen nearly 30% from the lows recorded in early August 2026 (2026-08), when a tentative US-Iran negotiating framework had briefly eased supply concerns.6,5 That recovery puts the contract within striking distance of the $119-$120 highs reached in March 2026 (2026-03), and has revived debate over how much additional disruption the market has yet to price into the forward curve.
The history of this year's price swings starts in late February 2026 (2026-02), when the US-Iran war began. When the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed on March 4 (2026-03-04), Brent surged more than 55% from pre-war levels of approximately $72 a barrel. Prices reached highs between $119 and $120 before the market began absorbing the shock.3
Relief came — briefly. A US-Iran negotiating framework emerged that included provisions to reopen the strait, and oil flows from the Middle East started returning to the market. Brent retreated to pre-war levels. Analysts, investment banks and traders began projecting a global oil glut as early as 2027, with prices expected to fall further as supply rebuilt.2
That window closed in July (2026-07) when the fragile ceasefire collapsed and renewed US military strikes sent traders back into disruption-pricing mode.3 By August 13 (2026-08-13), with the standoff over Hormuz control unresolved, analysts were warning of $120 oil again. If the stalemate continued for a few more weeks, analysts said, the physical market could reach a tipping point beyond which actual shortages, not just anticipated ones, would be felt.4
China's demand trajectory complicated the picture throughout. Beijing is estimated to have amassed more than 1.3 billion barrels in commercial and strategic reserves by the time conflict began in late February. It stopped buying crude on the spot market as soon as prices spiked.2 By June 2026 (2026-06), that combination of tighter supply and China's near-absence from spot markets was holding Brent below $100 even with the Strait under significant pressure.1
That appears to be changing. ING analysts said by September 9 (2026-09-09) that China had increased crude purchases in recent weeks after several months of lower demand.5 If Chinese buying accelerates while Hormuz disruptions deepen, both of the factors that capped the first rally are working in reverse.
The supply arithmetic is uncomfortable for both sides of the trade. Analysts project that more aggressive military action choking tanker operations would push prices well above $100 and keep them there.3 Yet bearish contrarian signals remain across ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, grounded in the expectation that Middle East flows will eventually return and a 2027 glut remains the base case if diplomacy succeeds.2 Physical buyers who have relied on contract structures and re-routing to buffer spot volatility face a narrowing margin if the strait stays contested into autumn.
Analysts estimate the conflict will add roughly 0.8% to global inflation.3 At $104.32 on September 13 (2026-09-13), ICE Brent front-month sits well above the pre-war $72 baseline but nearly $15 below the March 2026 (2026-03) ceiling. US-Iran talks have stalled and restarted before; the difference now is that China has shifted from building stockpiles to actively buying again, removing one of the demand-side cushions that kept prices capped through the summer.