Consultant sees gas glut surviving Hormuz shock as European prices climb to €79
A September 10 assessment that global supply overhang remains intact sits against EU storage running historically low and Asian LNG prices near multi-month highs.
A consultant told Montel on Thursday (2026-09-10) that the Hormuz crisis has not derailed a looming global gas glut — a position staked while TTF front-month futures stood at €79.51 per megawatt-hour as of Saturday (2026-09-12), roughly 27% above the €62.8 recorded during a five-day rally on Tuesday (2026-08-11), when tanker disruption across the Persian Gulf was already intensifying.7,6
European buyers have cause to follow the debate. Gas Infrastructure Europe data from mid-August showed EU underground storage only slightly above 60%, historically low for that point in the year — far short of the 86% fill rate analysts had identified as adequate before winter. In the 2025-26 heating season, LNG covered more than 40% of Europe's gas supply, according to industry data, making continental markets acutely sensitive to sustained disruption to seaborne cargoes.6,2,4
The disruption has been severe. The closure of the strait immediately removed a significant share of globally traded LNG supply, OGJ reported on June 8 (2026-06-08). At Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, destruction of LNG Trains 4 and 6 eliminated a substantial portion of the country's annual export capacity; industry assessments by May 2026 pointed to repairs taking three to five years.4
The scale of that damage makes the consultant's call striking. When the crisis first gripped markets, analysts told Montel in late April (2026-04-27) that Europe was underestimating the risk of prolonged closure, with rising Asian demand and EU replenishment efforts competing for the same tightening pool of cargoes.3
By the end of April (2026-04-30), the conditional math was clear: EU storage could still reach an adequate 86% fill if the strait reopened quickly, but a closure running past July would likely drive prices higher, analysts told Montel. TTF's subsequent climb toward €80 per megawatt-hour by September suggests the tighter scenario prevailed.2
But not all market participants were uniformly bearish even then. Seb Kennedy, independent energy analyst at Energy Flux, noted in late April (2026-04-27) that demand destruction in Asian consuming countries had been providing some relief, partly limiting the price spike that might otherwise have occurred and freeing some cargoes for reallocation.3
Asian spot LNG prices, though, do not reflect abundant supply. In mid-July (2026-07-16), traders told Bloomberg that spot LNG in Asia had reached $20.2 per million British thermal units, up 10% in a week and the highest level since March, as renewed fears over Hormuz shipping pushed buyers back into the market. The JKM benchmark on Saturday (2026-09-12) stood at $24.88 per million British thermal units, higher still than those mid-July levels.5
A commodities investment manager at Montel's German Energy Day in May (2026-05-21) put the downside plainly: if the strait remained closed for another full year, Europe's price shock would evolve into an outright supply crisis. The price levels seen across European and Asian benchmarks entering September do not suggest the market expects an early resolution.1
The consultant's specific reasoning is not available from the published Montel report, which sits behind a paywall. Supply re-routing outside the strait, demand destruction deeper than spot prices suggest, or non-Qatari LNG capacity coming online faster than expected could each support the glut thesis. Spot prices across both regions do not indicate any of those scenarios is already materializing.7
EU storage injection data for the weeks since mid-August (2026-08-11) will offer the clearest near-term test. If fill rates have recovered meaningfully toward 86%, the consultant's supply case gains empirical backing. If storage has continued to underperform as fourth-quarter demand builds across the continent, the gap between that thesis and market pricing looks set to widen.6,2