ICE Brent Spikes to $109.97 as U.S.-Iran Maritime Clashes at Hormuz Intensify
EIA data show Hormuz flows fell from 21.6 million to 4.9 million bpd as military confrontations drove ICE Brent to a four-month high.
ICE Brent crude front-month rose to $109.97 per barrel during the week ended September 12 (2026-09-12), its highest print since early May, before pulling back to approximately $107.86, as maritime confrontations between U.S. and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz intensified significantly, according to reports published September 11 (2026-09-11). With markets closed, the contract was last at $104.32 on September 13 (2026-09-13).7
EIA data show oil flows through Hormuz averaged only 4.9 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, down from 14.9 million bpd in Q1 and from 21.6 million bpd in Q4 2025. Crude and condensate flows dropped from 10.9 million bpd in Q1 to 3.7 million bpd in Q2. Those Q2 rates compare with an H1 2025 average of 20.9 million bpd, which the EIA said represented roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption and about a quarter of global maritime oil trade.5
The rally stretches back to July. ICE Brent front-month was near $78.72 on July 13 (2026-07-13), already up more than 3% that session as U.S.-Iran military tensions first sharpened focus on Hormuz disruption. By July 19 (2026-07-19), it had climbed to $90.56, up 2.8% from a close of $88.10, briefly touching $91.41 intraday. WTI crude rose 2.4% to $84.49 the same session, IBTimes reported.1,3
The escalation hardened further on July 15 (2026-07-15). Iran, following the collapse of a ceasefire with the United States, threatened to close "all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies," extending the potential disruption scenario to shipping lanes beyond Hormuz, including the Red Sea. Oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive session that day, with WTI climbing above $80.2
Prices pulled back into early August. ICE Brent front-month was at $89.60 on August 12 (2026-08-12), up 0.64%, as the U.S. maintained that Hormuz traffic had returned to normal. But the EIA's Q2 throughput data later showed flows at 4.9 million bpd against a pre-conflict run rate above 20 million bpd, making that August characterization hard to reconcile with measured physical flows.4,5
The September run has been steeper. ICE Brent front-month settled at $97.31 on September 7 (2026-09-07), its highest close since July 24 (2026-07-24), Reuters reported. WTI settled at $92.65 the same session. By September 10 (2026-09-10), Brent futures gained 40 cents, or 0.4%, to $101.61 at 08:14 GMT, while WTI added 49 cents, or 0.51%, to $96.54. Brent has risen nearly 30% from its early-August lows, Yahoo Finance reported.5,6
Goldman Sachs expects disruption to persist into 2027, Reuters reported, even as the market has not priced a complete closure of the strait. That gap, between EIA flow data showing Q2 throughput at a fraction of pre-conflict levels and a spot price that has not reflected a full blockade, suggests the market is pricing a severe but not total interruption — and leaves room for further repricing if Hormuz conditions deteriorate.5
Demand dynamics complicate the supply picture. China, the world's largest crude importer, increased purchases in recent weeks after several months of reduced demand, ING analysts said. Recovering Chinese buying alongside sharply lower Hormuz supply tightens the balance even if throughput holds at current depressed levels.6
Iran's standing threat to target additional shipping corridors means any further incident near Hormuz carries outsized price sensitivity. ICE Brent front-month reached $109.97 intraweek during the week ended September 12 (2026-09-12); with the contract at $104.32 on September 13 (2026-09-13) and no diplomatic resolution apparent, Q3 Hormuz flow data, when published, will provide the first read on whether the throughput collapse has bottomed. Goldman's forecast of disruption extending into 2027 suggests it has not.5,7