HSBC Raises Brent Forecast After Houthi Strikes on Saudi Facilities Push Crude to $104
ICE Brent front-month climbed roughly 25% in a week after Iran-backed attacks set Saudi oil installations ablaze, with Strait of Hormuz transit data deepening supply uncertainty.
ICE Brent crude front-month surpassed $102 per barrel on Thursday (2026-09-10) as HSBC raised its oil price forecast, and stood at $104.32 as of September 13 — completing a week in which prices climbed roughly 25% after Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked Saudi energy facilities and set multiple oil installations ablaze.6,2
The $100 threshold gave way on Wednesday (2026-09-09), the first time Brent had traded at that level since July 24 (2026-07-24). Futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 by 0721 GMT. NYMEX WTI crude front-month gained $1.70, or 1.83%, to $94.73 per barrel at the same time.1,2,4
By Thursday (2026-09-10), Brent had extended past $101 and then $102. The Houthi strikes raised fears the conflict could spread and disrupt regional energy infrastructure beyond the Saudi facilities already hit. Those attacks followed a resumption of fighting on August 30.5,6,2
Strait of Hormuz data gives the supply concern a concrete dimension. Rystad Energy chief economist Claudio Galimberti said roughly 8 million to 9 million barrels per day transited the strait in the week before fighting resumed on August 30, nearly double the previous week's volume. Since hostilities resumed, those flows had fallen, Rystad said.4,1
The conflict involves escalating US-Iran military operations and a broader US-Israel war, according to market reporting. Sustained attacks on tankers have raised freight and insurance costs on vessels in the region, adding physical pressure to the disruption risk already priced by crude markets.3,5
NYMEX WTI crude front-month stood at $99.99 per barrel as of September 13, $4.33 below ICE Brent. The divergence reflects a premium on the international benchmark for Middle Eastern export disruption that the US domestic contract does not carry in the same way.1
The IEA said in August it expected global oil supply to fall 4.3 million bpd this year, or roughly 4%, even as non-OPEC producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana had ramped up output. That production growth has provided some offset but has not capped the rally.1,4
HSBC's decision to raise its price forecast on Thursday (2026-09-10) signals the bank now views the $100-plus range as durable rather than a temporary spike. But forecasts revised higher after a 25% weekly move confirm what prices already reflect. The market was above $102 before the bank's revised numbers were published.6
How much of the week's gain reflects confirmed supply loss versus fear and positioning remains unclear. Reports have not established the precise production impact of the Saudi facility strikes, and some of the premium built into $104 crude could unwind if damage assessments come in below initial fears.2
The immediate signal is whether Hormuz transit volumes continue to fall below the 8 million to 9 million bpd Rystad measured before August 30. A further decline would add pressure to the IEA's 4.3 million bpd global supply shortfall projection. If tankers re-route and flows stabilize, the gap between $104 Brent and verified supply loss will face scrutiny.4,1