China's September Crude Imports Track August Levels as Fuel Exports Jump 29%
Kpler vessel tracking puts September intake near 7.2 million bpd, but volumes remain well below year-ago levels as feedstock costs hold above $100 per barrel.
Kpler's preliminary vessel tracking put China's crude oil imports at roughly 7.2 million barrels per day for September, Nikkei Asia reported on Friday (2026-09-11), sustaining a recovery from June's near-decade trough of 7.1 million bpd for a second straight month.5
Official Chinese customs data told a more bullish story for August. That count showed imports of 37.93 million tons, equivalent to 8.93 million bpd, up 6.2% from July and the second consecutive monthly gain. Vessel-tracking and official figures tend to diverge on Chinese flows, partly because bonded-zone storage and strategic inventory drawdowns obscure actual refinery intake. Both readings point in the same direction: June was the low.5
Even at 8.93 million bpd, August imports ran 23.4% below the same month in 2025. The shortfall reflects a strategic buffer Beijing built before the conflict began. China accumulated roughly 1.4 billion barrels of crude reserves and then, in June, slashed seaborne purchases by an estimated 4.4 million bpd relative to the 2025 average, according to customs data. That reserve buffer allowed Beijing to sidestep spot market competition even as prices climbed above $100.5
Structural demand substitution has amplified the effect on import volumes. Rystad Energy found that Chinese crude imports fell more sharply than actual oil consumption, with coal-based petrochemicals displacing crude-derived feedstocks and EV penetration accelerating across the vehicle fleet. The IEA estimated EV displacement of Chinese oil demand at around 1 million bpd in 2025, with electric trucks now making a meaningful contribution. Goldman Sachs also flagged the coal-to-petrochemical shift as a persistent drag on import volumes relative to underlying consumption.3
The import recovery has nonetheless fed sharply higher product exports. Refined fuel shipments jumped 29% month-on-month to 6 million tons in August, customs data showed, clearing the 5.33 million tons exported in August 2025. Refiners appear to have raised throughput aggressively once export restrictions eased, directing incremental crude runs into overseas product markets.2
Sourcing has shifted as volumes recover. Chinese buyers stepped up purchases of Russian crude as Iranian supply tightened and Strait of Hormuz transit risks persisted, traders told Reuters. That move put Chinese and Indian refiners in direct competition for spot Middle Eastern barrels, with both bidding aggressively for Persian Gulf grades, Rigzone reported. Abu Dhabi's Murban crude commands a premium of more than $30 per barrel to Dubai for East Asia delivery, traders said — a spread that signals how tight that competition has become.3,1
ICE Brent front-month gained more than 6% on Thursday (2026-09-10), pushing the week's advance to nearly 13%, with the contract having briefly touched $110 per barrel on Friday (2026-09-04) before pulling back. ICE Brent front-month stood at $104.32 per barrel at Sunday's close (2026-09-13). OPEC's crude production fell by nearly 640,000 bpd in August, and US crude inventories declined 391,000 barrels in the week ending August 31 to 424.1 million barrels — supply-side data underpinning the recent advance.4
OPEC also revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast down to 380,000 bpd, the fifth consecutive downward cut. That bearish read on demand has not prevented prices from rising above $100, but it limits how confidently any bull case can be built on demand growth alone, with Chinese structural substitution a clear factor in the cartel's calculations.4
Urals crude was quoted at $103.70 per barrel as of Sunday (2026-09-13), a slim discount to ICE Brent front-month's $104.32. Near-parity limits the cost advantage Chinese refiners capture by sourcing Russian supply, trimming the incentive that drove diversification earlier in the year when the Urals-Brent gap was far wider.3
The September Kpler tracking figure of 7.2 million bpd will face scrutiny when official customs data arrives in the coming weeks. If the gap with August's official read of 8.93 million bpd persists, it would imply refiners are drawing down inventories rather than genuinely lifting throughput. With Murban commanding a $30 premium to Dubai and ICE Brent front-month above $104, feedstock costs have climbed sharply since June — a squeeze that could slow the buying recovery faster than headline import data now implies.5,1