Supertanker Rates at $800,000 a Day and the $15-a-Barrel Cost Asian Refiners Are Already Absorbing
A $15-a-barrel freight premium on US Gulf-to-Asia crude is compressing Asian refinery margins as Morgan Stanley warns two-year tanker leasing rates could rise another 20-30%.
Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's Middle East-to-China route surged to $800,000 a day as of Friday (2026-09-11), following U.S. strikes on five Iranian-linked tankers and escalating threats from Tehran. Bloomberg data place the average US Gulf-to-Asia voyage for very large crude carriers at $29.5 million per trip, equivalent to $15 a barrel before war-risk surcharges or port delays are added.5
ICE Brent front-month stood at $104.32 as of September 13. Layer $15 a barrel in freight onto that, and Asian buyers of US crude face all-in costs above $120 at the refinery gate. Morgan Stanley analysts said two-year VLCC leasing rates could rise another 20% to 30%, per Bloomberg reporting as of Friday (2026-09-11).5 That would push the freight structure higher still, eroding the economics that initially brought Asian refiners to US barrels.
Credible estimates of Hormuz throughput currently diverge by 5 million barrels a day. Vitol's chief executive estimated roughly 10 million bpd was crossing the waterway during the week of September 7 (2026-09-07); Goldman Sachs analysts put the figure at around 15 million.5 Iraq's entire August export volume was 2.34 million bpd — to frame the size of that discrepancy. If Goldman's estimate is correct, the effective supply disruption is considerably smaller than the most alarming assessments imply.
Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti told Reuters that Hormuz flows fell to below 2 million bpd after fighting resumed on August 30 (2026-08-30), though the daily moving average remained around 4 million to 5 million bpd. Galimberti said that average placed Brent at a fair price of $95.4 Kpler data showed on Monday (2026-09-07) that no very large crude carrier had exited the strait since Wednesday (2026-09-02).4 Yet in the week before the August 30 escalation, Rystad estimated 8 million to 9 million bpd was transiting the waterway, double the volume of the prior week.4
Alternative routing is absorbing more volume than the aggregate disruption figures convey. Argus data show West Asia crude exports have roughly halved since the conflict began around February 2026, falling from around 18 million bpd to about 11 million bpd.4 Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal saw throughput more than double from June 2026 levels to 2.139 million bpd in August, according to provisional Kpler data.4 Iraq's exports rebounded to 2.34 million bpd that same month.4 Saudi Arabia's Yanbu terminal fell to a six-month low of 1.429 million bpd in August, against a three-month prior average of 3.9 million bpd, but Sidi Kerir and Iraqi flows are partly offsetting Yanbu's retreat.4
U.S. crude stocks rose 17.4 million barrels in the week to August 13 (2026-08-13), Reuters reported, the largest single-week build since January 2023.2 U.S. crude exports hit a record 5.6 million bpd in May 2026 as Asian buyers moved away from Hormuz-dependent barrels, Reuters reported.1 The record export pace and the subsequent inventory build point in the same direction: US supply is ample, and if Asian refinery margins deteriorate further under freight pressure, US export volumes face a correction.
Baltic Exchange data show the newer Gulf of Oman-to-East Asia benchmark surged 85% since inception, reaching almost $386,000 a day in the week of September 7 (2026-09-07).5 The August 18 (2026-08-18) print for the Middle East-to-China route stood at $510,000 a day.3 The jump to $800,000 in less than four weeks is steep, but the same route collapsed quickly when the interim U.S.-Iran ceasefire in July 2026 briefly restored Hormuz flows to pre-war levels of 16 million bpd.4
Kpler recording a VLCC transit through Hormuz after September 2 would be the first concrete sign of supply recovery. Equally consequential is whether the Goldman and Vitol flow estimates converge: a market pricing 10 million bpd of Hormuz throughput carries a very different Brent trajectory than one anchored to 15 million.5