Middle East Oil Shipments Fall to 11 Million Bpd as IEA Projects 1.8 Million Bpd Q3 Deficit
Seven months of Hormuz disruption have cut Middle East crude exports by nearly 40%, with ICE Brent above $100 despite demand destruction softening the supply shock.
ICE Brent front-month stood at $104.32 per barrel as of September 13 (2026-09-13). That placed it roughly $9 above the $95 level one analyst described as "fair" given current Hormuz throughput. Flows through the strait fell to below 2 million barrels per day after fighting erupted again on August 30 (2026-08-30), with the daily moving average sitting at around 4 to 5 million bpd, according to a report published September 7 (2026-09-07).7
The scale of the supply loss is captured in a single comparison. Middle East crude shipments now run at about 11 million bpd, down from 18 million bpd before the conflict began, Argus data show. Seven months of hostilities have stripped more than a third of the region's pre-war export volume.7
The International Energy Agency sharpened its forecast on August 12 (2026-08-12), cutting its 2026 global oil supply projection to reflect a 4.3 million bpd decline, worse than the 3.7 million bpd reduction it had projected just a month earlier. The IEA now sees global supply at 102.02 million bpd, its lowest 2026 forecast yet, with a quarterly deficit of 1.8 million bpd in the current period.4
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's August Short-Term Energy Outlook, released August 11 (2026-08-11), put production shut-ins at an average of 5.5 million bpd in July and assumed Hormuz transits would remain severely constrained. The EIA raised its Q3 Brent price forecast to $85 per barrel on that basis — a level the physical market surpassed months ago. Bab el-Mandeb added to the freight burden, with the EIA's Q2 assessment recording 8.1 million bpd through that chokepoint as the Red Sea remained a secondary constraint on tanker routing.3,5
Saudi Arabia's rerouting has provided partial relief. Yanbu exports hit a six-month low of 1.429 million bpd in August, down from a three-month average of 3.9 million bpd, provisional Kpler data show. Egypt's Sidi Kerir partly compensated, with exports from that terminal reaching 2.139 million bpd in August, more than double June volumes.7
Iraq added to the recovery. Exports from OPEC's second-largest producer rebounded to around 2.34 million bpd in August. But industry estimates of total Gulf daily exports still ranged between 6 million and 8 million barrels, a wide spread reflecting the difficulty of tracking actual throughput.7
The July ceasefire showed what rapid normalisation might look like. During the interim U.S.-Iran deal, Hormuz transits briefly reached pre-war levels of 16 million bpd, and Middle East loadings hit 20 million bpd in early July before retreating to 12 million bpd later in the month, IEA data show. The collapse that followed was swift.7,4
ICE Brent front-month reached $100 on July 23 (2026-07-23), rising nearly one-third from the month's earlier low as the market concluded the ceasefire was unlikely to hold. The week ending August 14 (2026-08-14) saw Brent heading toward a 5% weekly gain after U.S.-Iran settlement talks again stalled and Tehran ratcheted up pressure.2,6
Demand destruction has softened the impact. Third-quarter losses in petrochemicals and transportation fuels ran at 3.5 million bpd, down from 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter, indicating consumption is adjusting even as the underlying supply shortfall deepens.7
The $9 gap between ICE Brent prices and the $95 analyst estimate reflects competing interpretations of where flows stabilise. One reading is that physical tightness in Gulf cargoes is more severe than daily moving averages imply. Another is that buyers are pricing risk of a fresh escalation pushing Hormuz below its post-August 30 lows. Dubai crude, the physical Gulf marker, stood at $114.91 per barrel as of September 13 (2026-09-13), nearly $10 above ICE Brent, a sign of how aggressively spot buyers are bidding for available cargoes.7
Yanbu volumes offer the clearest read on Saudi Arabia's alternative capacity. Running at roughly one-third of its recent average, the port feeds Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, rated at up to 7 million bpd and the key bypass around Hormuz. If that corridor cannot recover its volumes and Hormuz flows stay stuck below 2 million bpd, the IEA's 1.8 million bpd quarterly deficit estimate looks too conservative.7,1