India Drives Coking Coal Demand Growth While Cutting Seaborne Thermal Imports, IEA Says
India leads global coking coal demand growth this year while cutting seaborne thermal imports, as worldwide mine proposals and coal investment both hit multi-year highs.
India will be the main source of growth in global coking coal demand this year even as its seaborne thermal coal imports fall to around 160 million tonnes, the International Energy Agency said in its mid-year coal update, reported on Thursday (2026-09-10).6
The divergence reflects India's domestic production push. Increasing coking coal consumption for steelmaking is running alongside a domestic mining ramp large enough to reduce seaborne thermal purchases. That expansion now shows up in global mine development data. Global Energy Monitor, an NGO, found in a report on August 12 (2026-08-12) that coalmine proposals submitted the previous year were large enough to add 2.5 billion tonnes annually to global supply, an 11% rise from the year before. India drove the acceleration.4,5
China remains the larger supply force. Proposed coalmine capacity in China stood at 1,321 million tonnes per year in 2025, more than half the global pipeline and exceeding the proposed capacity of all other countries combined, Global Energy Monitor said. India recorded the sharpest percentage increase among all producers.5
Investment confirms the momentum. Global coal spending is set to reach $180 billion this year, up 4% and the highest since 2012, the IEA said. China will account for around 65% of that total. Steam coal production investment is rising 5%, coking coal 3%.1
The Hormuz disruption accelerated decisions already in motion. Asian nations had been sourcing 80% to 90% of their Gulf oil and gas along a transit route the conflict brought into question. Two damaged Ras Laffan LNG plants have left around 17 billion cubic metres of annual capacity offline regardless of whether the strait reopens, the IEA said. That supply gap hardened the regional case for domestic coal expansion. The IEA cited the shock as a driver behind coal reaching a 14-year investment high.1
Global electricity demand explains why the economics hold. The IEA projects coal-fired plants to generate 10,974 terawatt-hours in 2026, close to one-third of global power output. Coal supplied around 55% of Chinese electricity in 2025, even as China built more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined.3
The United States added unexpected volume. U.S. coal consumption rose 10.4% to 8.7 exajoules in 2025 and coal-fired generation jumped 13.1% to 804 terawatt-hours. Both figures look less dramatic set against the long baseline: U.S. coal consumption sits roughly 62% below its 2005 peak, and generation about 63% below its 2007 high.2
Europe continued its retreat. EU coal-fired generation fell 3.6% and made up only 2.6% of global output. Asia-Pacific coal generation declined 1.2% and Europe overall dropped 3.4%, a contraction that has run for years even as Asian demand expands.2
Newcastle coal physical was priced at $139.05 per tonne on September 12 (2026-09-12). The IEA's forecast of falling Indian thermal imports would limit seaborne demand growth if domestic output holds its projected pace. But India's coking coal consumption is projected to keep rising regardless. Asian LNG spot was priced at $24.88 per MMBtu on September 12 (2026-09-12), providing context for the fuel-switching economics that keep thermal coal competitive for price-sensitive power buyers across the region. A shortfall in India's domestic thermal mining output remains the variable most likely to pull it back into spot markets faster than the agency currently projects.6,1