IEA Data Show India's Coal Power Fell in 2025 for First Time in Five Decades
India's coal power fell in 2025 for the first time in 50 years as renewable additions outpaced demand growth, the IEA said Saturday.
India's total coal demand fell 1% to 1,299 million tonnes in 2025, and coal-fired power generation in the country declined for the first time in 50 years, the IEA said in a report published Saturday (2026-09-12). Record additions of solar and wind capacity grew fast enough to cover electricity consumption growth without additional thermal burn.7
India and China together drove 93% of the rise in global carbon dioxide emissions from their power sectors between 2015 and 2024, per Carbon Brief analysis. A simultaneous pullback in coal power across both countries, the first in half a century, removes a key assumption from long-run demand projections for seaborne thermal coal.3
Carbon Brief's analysis shows coal-fired power generation in India fell 3.0% year-on-year in 2025, or 46 TWh, while China's dropped 1.6%, or 90 TWh. China pulled off its reduction despite electricity consumption rising 5% in the same year, meaning non-fossil additions were outrunning load growth rather than just keeping pace.3
The momentum has carried into 2026 in China. Coal's share of China's total electricity output averaged 49.7% in the first half of this year, below 50% for the first time on record, according to official data published Thursday (2026-07-30). Renewable energy accounted for 41.2% of China's generation over the same period, with wind and solar combined generating almost 25% of total output — up about 9% from a year earlier, China's National Energy Administration reported.5
India's domestic coal production held at around 1.1 billion tonnes for a second consecutive year, the IEA said, meaning the power-sector decline was driven by renewable displacement rather than a supply crunch. The IEA's mid-year coal update, published Thursday (2026-09-10), projects India's thermal coal imports falling to around 160 million tonnes this year.6,7
The coking and thermal markets are moving in opposite directions. The IEA expects India to be the main driver of global coking coal demand growth in 2026 even as thermal imports contract. Aggregate India import figures obscure that split, which is material for anyone using headline Indian coal data as a directional signal.6
Newcastle coal physical was quoted at $139.05 per tonne as of Saturday (2026-09-12). Whether that level already prices in a sustained Indian thermal import reduction or is anchored by other factors is not determinable from available data.7
Asia's demand trajectory keeps the bearish coal read conditional. China's electricity consumption is forecast to rise 5.5% and India's 7% this year, Asian Power reported. If renewable commissioning lags that pace in either country during any peak-demand period, coal plants will be called back. China continues to depend on coal to underpin grid reliability even as its generation share falls.4,5
Globally, coal still accounts for roughly 35% of total electricity supply according to GlobalElectricity.org, and more than 2,000 GW of coal capacity remains operational worldwide. The IEA forecasts global power demand growing by more than 3% per year on average through the rest of the decade, with renewables and nuclear gaining share while natural gas also expands. Renewable output is projected to grow by roughly 1,000 TWh annually through 2030, with solar PV contributing more than 600 TWh of that total.2,1
India's electricity consumption is forecast to grow 7% this year. If domestic renewable additions cannot keep pace, thermal coal imports would push back above the IEA's 160 million tonne projection. JKM Asian LNG was quoted at $24.88 per MMBtu on Saturday (2026-09-12), above competitive levels for most of the region's price-sensitive power buyers, making coal the more likely default if demand outpaces clean supply in any quarter ahead.4,6