RBOB Gasoline Holds Above $3.31 as Brent Extends Triple-Digit Gains to $104.32
US pump prices have climbed nearly 42% from pre-war levels as Hormuz constraints keep crude and gasoline markets tight heading into the weekend.
ICE Brent crude front-month settled at $101.21 a barrel on Wednesday (2026-09-09) — its first triple-digit close in roughly two months — then extended gains to $104.32 as of 2026-09-12, as US-Iran military escalation showed no sign of easing. NYMEX RBOB gasoline front-month tracked the move, sitting at $3.31 a gallon as of 2026-09-12, while the US average retail price for regular gasoline reached $4.22 a gallon on Wednesday (2026-09-09), up nearly 42% from $2.98 before the war began, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.5,4
The transmission from Brent to RBOB has been fast and direct. Refinery feedstock costs move with crude, and when NYMEX WTI crude front-month gained more than 2% on Wednesday (2026-09-09) to push past $95, product crack spreads adjusted the same day. Street-level prices follow within 48 to 72 hours.4
The Strait of Hormuz is the mechanism. Shipping through the strait, responsible before the conflict for roughly 20% of global crude flows, has remained severely constrained as owners weigh crew safety against cargo value, Yahoo Finance reported. Roughly 20 million barrels of crude and refined products moved through daily in normal conditions, mostly bound for Asia and Europe. What volume has rerouted carries higher freight costs, and those costs are visible in spot prices.4,1
The supply damage built over months. Global oil supply dropped by 12.8 million barrels per day since February, while on-land inventories drew down by 170 million barrels in April alone, the International Energy Agency reported. UBS commodity strategist Giovanni Staunovo told CNBC that as much as 10 million barrels per day are "in jeopardy" if the Hormuz closure continues.1
The futures curve in early September already reflected physical scarcity. Data published by HDFCSKY on 2026-09-04 showed front-month Brent trading $6 to $7 above the 2030 strip — deep backwardation signalling the market sees no quick resolution. Backwardation at that level incentivises storage drawdowns rather than builds, keeping product crack spreads elevated even without fresh supply shocks.2
OPEC+ has tried to offset some of the loss. The group's September output increase of 188,000 barrels per day reinforced expectations of more production returning to market, HDFCSKY reported. Against a 12.8-million-barrel-per-day shortfall, that increment does not move the dial on physical availability.2,1
A second pressure is operating in the product market directly. Ukrainian military strikes have effectively shut refining capacity inside Russia that, before 2022, accounted for roughly 10% of the world's diesel exports, according to Yahoo Finance. Diesel and gasoline compete for the same crude barrel at the refinery gate. Tighter diesel markets globally are pulling crude allocation toward middle distillates in some regions, which reduces the pressure on RBOB cracks to absorb demand softening in gasoline alone.4
Oil prices had already reached three-month highs on Tuesday (2026-09-08), according to Rigzone, as escalating Gulf tensions renewed concern over regional energy flows. Paolo Broccardo, CEO at BankPro, flagged the trajectory in a Tuesday (2026-09-08) analysis sent to Rigzone. Wednesday's (2026-09-09) move confirmed it. Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates described the price action plainly: "Oil investors are expressing their view about the impact of the latest bout of escalation in the Middle East in an unambiguous way," per Yahoo Finance.3,4
There is a counter-reading. Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, told Rigzone on Tuesday (2026-09-08) that US President Donald Trump's public statement — that oil prices would "DROP PRECIPITOUSLY" once the Iran conflict ended — was framing "a very different post-conflict oil scenario" for traders. Part of the current Brent and RBOB premium reflects conflict duration risk. A ceasefire or diplomatic opening, even partial, could unwind a material portion of that premium quickly, pulling RBOB down with it.3
For now, the physical market offers no such relief. With IEA inventory buffers severely eroded and Hormuz flows still constrained, ICE Brent front-month at $104.32 as of 2026-09-12 sits above demand-destruction thresholds seen in previous cycles. The concrete signal to track for gasoline markets is tanker traffic through the strait: if flows begin recovering in the weeks ahead, the curve's backwardation may ease before retail prices do.1,5