UBS India Sees Brent at $80 by Year-End on West Asia Settlement
Brent touched $110 before pulling back; with ICE Brent front-month at $104.32, UBS India's year-end $80 target implies a 23% decline on any West Asia settlement.
Brent crude touched $110 a barrel in early trade on September 11, 2026 as West Asia tensions intensified, then retreated. On the same day, UBS India energy analyst Rwibhu Aon published a year-end target of around $80 a barrel, conditional on a resolution to the conflict, with the price forecast to average around $75 through calendar year 2027.7,8
ICE Brent crude front-month was quoted at $104.32 as of September 13, markets closed for the weekend. Brent had been climbing for weeks: it cleared a four-month high of $108.77 on Friday, September 4, 2026, before pushing through $110 on September 11. On UBS India's numbers, a settlement would take roughly 23% off the September 13 price.6,7,8
UBS India is not the only bank projecting a sharp pullback on resolution. Citigroup analysts told Bloomberg in early July 2026 that Brent could fall to $60 by year-end if Hormuz shipping normalises, citing gradual improvement in strait traffic and signs of softening in physical markets. Goldman Sachs, in a note dated June 15, 2026, cut its oil price forecasts on expectations of faster-than-anticipated Persian Gulf export recovery and also settled on an $80 near-term target for Brent.4,3
The $20 spread between Citigroup's $60 and UBS India's $80 turns on the pace of Gulf export recovery after any settlement and whether Asian buyers can absorb returning volumes without pushing prices toward the lower end. Roughly 20 million barrels of crude and refined products transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, bound mostly for Asian markets.1,4,8
Supply has contracted materially since the disruptions began. The IEA reported a drop of 12.8 million barrels per day in global oil supply from February levels, while on-land inventories drew down by 170 million barrels in April alone. UBS commodity strategist Giovanni Staunovo told CNBC that as much as 10 million barrels per day remain "in jeopardy" while the closure continues.1
Some offset has arrived from outside the Gulf. US, Canadian and Guyanese producers are expected to add 1.4 million barrels per day combined this year. Russian exports held at roughly 5.5 million barrels per day through July and August, down from a June peak of 6.4 million bpd but broadly stable.5
According to OPEC's monthly oil market report, Saudi Arabia reported August production of 6.24 million barrels per day but delivered 7.12 million barrels per day to the market, drawing on stored crude to cover the gap. Iraq raised output by 664,000 barrels per day in August to 3.38 million bpd, the same OPEC data showed.7
US inventory data for the week ended September 4 cut against the supply-shock narrative. The EIA reported a draw of just 0.4 million barrels in commercial crude stocks to 424.1 million barrels, while gasoline inventories rose 1.3 million barrels and distillate stocks, including diesel, climbed 2.1 million barrels. Product builds alongside a near-flat crude draw suggest demand is not accelerating in step with elevated crude prices.7
Rabobank, writing in early June 2026, argued the market was underestimating the supply shortfall and put the deficit above 11 million barrels per day, describing prices at that point as "misleading." Goldman's June 15 note projected a global oil surplus of 3.2 million barrels per day in 2027 and acknowledged risks ran in both directions. The divergence between the two banks captures the central uncertainty: whether Gulf supply normalises fast enough to prevent a Q4 tightening before any formal resolution is reached.2,3
The UBS India $80 year-end target rests on diplomatic progress materialising before December. Without it, Saudi Arabia's stock drawdown and Iraq's August output ramp may not be enough to cover product markets through Q4. Rabobank specifically flagged diesel shortages as a risk for the third quarter — a warning the distillate build in EIA data for the week ended September 4 has not confirmed, but one that traders in NYMEX heating oil front-month will be watching closely.2,7