Russia Threatens to Cut Off Armenia's Gas as Gazprom Hemorrhages Revenue and Customers

Russia Threatens to Cut Off Armenia's Gas as Gazprom Hemorrhages Revenue and Customers Moscow's warning to Yerevan extends a pattern of energy coercion even as Russian gas accounts for just 18 percent of European imports. Russia warned Armenia of a possible complete halt to gas, oil product and diamond supplies over its EU alignment, adding Yerevan to the list of former Soviet states targeted with energy coercion as Gazprom's customer base shrinks.⁴ Gazprom incurred losses of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999. Russian gas now accounts for just 18 percent of European imports, down from 45 percent in 2021. Oil imports have fallen to 3 percent from around 30 percent.² Slovakia, one of Gazprom's last major EU clients, is ready to conclude a long-term gas contract with Azerbaijan, Deputy PM Taraba said.⁶ Ukraine halted Russian gas transit after the prewar deal expired. Russia's EU pipeline gas share dropped to about 8 percent in 2023 from nearly 40 percent before the war, according to EU Commission data.⁵ Russia expects pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union to decline 10.7 percent to 72 bcm this year. LNG exports seen up just 3 percent to 35.7 million tonnes.² China has not filled the gap. Russian gas production reached approximately 334.8 bcm by mid-year, down 3.2 percent. Power of Siberia exports projected to increase over 20 percent to maximum 38 bcm capacity, but that replaces only a fraction of European losses. LNG production declined 5.1 percent.³ Russia compensates with oil at 240.1 million tonnes, up from 229.7 million forecast. Combined revenues raised to $206.1 billion for 2025 but revised down to $215.2 billion for 2026.^2,1 Armenia was de facto a half-colony of Moscow. Yerevan's EU pivot represents a strategic loss Russia attempts to reverse through energy pressure.⁴ Uniper's EUR 13 billion arbitration award against Gazprom could shape future EU gas dynamics and set a template for other utilities pursuing claims.⁷ What to watch is whether Russia follows through on the Armenian threat and whether Slovakia's Azerbaijan pivot triggers additional Gazprom exits.^6,3