Serbia keeps Russian gas flowing to October as Gazprom's European customer list thins

Serbia keeps Russian gas flowing to October as Gazprom's European customer list thins A short extension keeps 6.1mcm/day of Gazprom gas moving into Serbia, but it underlines how few European buyers Russia has left. Serbia extended its gas supply contract with Gazprom until October, energy minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said late on Thursday (2026-06-04), keeping 6.1 million cubic metres a day of Russian gas flowing into the country.⁸ That matters less for the volume than for the company Serbia now keeps. Belgrade is among the last European buyers still taking contracted pipeline gas from Gazprom, and the deal it just rolled over runs only to October. This is a stopgap, not a vote of confidence. A few months of supply at a modest daily rate is what passes for a Gazprom win in Europe in 2026.⁸ The contrast with Serbia's neighbours is the story. In Bulgaria, once the least connected gas market on the continent, the former monopolist has effectively conceded defeat, according to NGW Magazine, with Russia heavily discounting volumes for a country it likes to call a brotherly Slavic nation. Bulgaria is now spoiled for choice on supply.⁶ Slovakia is heading the same way. One of Gazprom's last major clients inside the European Union, it is ready to sign a long-term contract with Azerbaijan, deputy prime minister Tomas Taraba said, as Bratislava moves to diversify away from Russian gas.⁷ Set against that, a six-month Serbian extension reads as managed decline rather than recovery. Each renewal is shorter and the customer base is smaller. The direction of travel is one way. The usual rebuttal is that Russia has simply turned east, and that Europe's loss is China's gain. The data complicate that claim. Russian gas production fell about 3.2% year on year to roughly 334.8 billion cubic metres by June, and LNG output dropped 5.1% to around 16.5 million tonnes, according to federal statistics cited by Fullavante News, with Chinese demand failing to offset the European volumes that have gone.² Exports through the existing Power of Siberia pipeline are projected to rise more than 20% this year, hitting the line's maximum capacity of 38 billion cubic metres annually.² That is real growth, but it is a fraction of what Gazprom once shipped west, and a maxed-out pipeline cannot absorb more. The longer-term answer is Power of Siberia 2. Russia and China signed a legally binding deal on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to build the long-delayed line, which would carry up to 50 billion cubic metres a year from West Siberia to northern China via eastern Mongolia, Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said.⁵ It was part of a wider package, framed in some accounts as a 30-year, $400 billion agreement requiring around $55 billion of Russian investment in exploration, pipelines and infrastructure.^3,4 Headline numbers aside, none of that ships gas this winter. Power of Siberia 2 has been promised for years, and a memorandum is not a molecule. While Moscow signs documents in Beijing, its actual European footprint is being measured in short extensions to small contracts like Serbia's.^3,5 The squeeze is visible on the demand side too. Ukraine has set a winter storage target of 14.6 billion cubic metres, about 34% of capacity, with a floor of 13.2 billion cubic metres, the energy ministry said on Thursday (2026-05-21), citing supply concerns from Russian attacks on gas infrastructure and broader wartime conditions.¹ A region this short of secure supply is not where Gazprom rebuilds market share. For European hub pricing, marginal Russian pipeline flows still matter at the edges, and the prevailing signal across these stories leans bearish for Russian supply rather than supportive. But the trade here is structural positioning, not a single tick on the front-month curve. Watch the October expiry on the Serbian contract. If Belgrade extends again on similar short terms, Gazprom's European business is on a glide path; if it signs longer or larger, that would be the first sign in months that the decline has paused. Slovakia's Azerbaijani talks and Bulgaria's diversification are the other side of the same ledger.^8,7⁶