Energy market intelligence
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Weather - A cool Atlantic regime owns NW Europe through mid-June; Friday's 12Z run trimmed the mid-month warm-up by ~4°C and lifted wind, pushing the warm interlude later and weaker. - Near-term cold is high-conviction: London day-5 cold anomaly 98% (>1sd), Paris 91%, Frankfurt 81%, Amsterdam 78% — polar maritime airmass behind successive Atlantic systems. - Wind supportive for NW capacity: Amsterdam avg 21.2 km/h (peak 26.6), London avg 21.3 km/h (peak 30.2); Frankfurt limp at 11.6 km/h avg. - Demand-neutral:…

European gas led the overnight tape, with TTF front-month jumping 7.32% to $48.85/MWh — the standout move across the complex and a sharp break from the grinding range it had held through late May. Carbon and coal moved in sympathy: EUA carbon firmed 2.19% to $77.55 and the coal ETF proxy gained 3.77% to $28.54, a combination that points to genuine fuel-switching tension rather than a one-off gas headline. Crude was firmer but unremarkable by comparison, with ICE Brent front-month up 0.71% to $95.31 and WTI up…

A cool, breezy Atlantic regime owns NW Europe through mid-month, and today's 12Z run cut the mid-June warm-up by roughly 4°C while raising wind — the ridge traders had penciled in for the second week is weaker and more progressive than yesterday advertised. The single change that matters: from the Jun 15–17 window, every NW European city lost 4–4.7°C off the prior run's daily maxima and gained wind, so the warm, low-wind interlude that looked likely for mid-month has been trimmed back toward more of the same…

WTI crude closed Friday at $87.36, down 0.9% on the session and 19% for May—the worst monthly performance since the pandemic demand collapse. Brent settled at $91.12, off 1.3%. Managed money positioning tells the story: net WTI longs fell 23,012 contracts week-over-week to 115,762. Brent remains net short at -24,599 contracts, though shorts covered 3,827 contracts last week. The VIX, meanwhile, sits at 15.32 after dropping 2.8%…