Europe Is Restocking Coal From Colombia as a Hedge Against the Next Gas Spike

Europe Is Restocking Coal From Colombia as a Hedge Against the Next Gas Spike EU thermal coal imports are set for a five-month high at 2.27m tonnes, led by a 48% jump in Colombian supply, as utilities buy insurance against Middle East gas risk. European thermal coal imports are set to reach a five-month high in April, with deliveries rising 25% on the month and 10% on the year to 2.27 million tonnes, their highest since November 2025, according to provisional Kpler vessel-tracking data.¹ Utilities are stocking up in case of further gas price spikes linked to the Middle East war.¹ A continent that has spent years trying to phase coal out is quietly buying more of it, and the reason is insurance, not conviction. It matters because of where the coal is coming from. Colombian supply was by far the most significant component of the increase, rising 48% from March's total to 1.12 million tonnes.¹ That is an Atlantic-basin source, not Russian or Asian, and it tells you European buyers are rebuilding a coal hedge through the trade routes still open to them. When utilities reach for Colombian tonnes at a five-month-high pace, they are pricing the risk that gas becomes unaffordable or unavailable if the Iran war disrupts more supply. The logic is precautionary stockpiling rather than a fuel switch already underway. European power still leans on gas, but the memory of 2022 and the live threat to Middle East flows have made coal a cheap option to hold. Buying 2.27 million tonnes now, while it is available, is far less painful than bidding for it in a winter panic, and the 48% surge in Colombian deliveries is what that calculation looks like in vessel data.¹ The global backdrop is what makes the hedge affordable right now. China, the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, mines approximately 4.8 billion tonnes a year, over half the global total.⁶ But Chinese coal imports actually declined in April after a record first quarter, as weak demand and unfavourable import economics weighed on buying.⁵ With the largest seaborne buyer stepping back, European utilities face less competition for Atlantic cargoes, which is part of why Colombian supply could surge to meet EU restocking without a bidding war. That window may not stay open. China could greatly reduce its reliance on coal, given how fast solar and wind are growing, but it probably will not, and its structural appetite remains enormous.⁴ If Chinese imports rebound from the April dip, the competition for seaborne coal that Europe is currently exploiting tightens, and the cheap hedge gets more expensive. The EU's restocking is well timed precisely because the biggest buyer is quiet. The longer-term substitution story sits underneath all of this. Russia's gas pivot to China, via the planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline able to deliver 50 billion cubic metres a year, is aimed at a Chinese market that will need more gas to substitute for an eventual coal phase-down.² China is also building flexibility at scale, with a third of the world's pumped-storage under development located there and a target of 130 GW by 2030 it looks set to break.³ These are the forces that will eventually pull China off imported coal, but none of them change the near-term picture in which Europe can restock cheaply. The signal to watch is whether Chinese coal imports stay soft or rebound, because that determines how long Europe's cheap hedging window lasts.⁵ If China stays out of the seaborne market, EU utilities keep building coal stocks from Colombia at favourable prices as protection against gas risk.¹ If Chinese buying returns, the Atlantic coal Europe is leaning on gets contested, and the insurance policy European utilities are writing now becomes far dearer to renew. For a continent committed to phasing coal out, the awkward truth is that it is restocking it, and the only reason it can do so cheaply is that the world's largest coal buyer has briefly looked away.^1,5