Storm Watch — Tropical-Cyclone × Energy-Asset Risk Desk
Basin read · Atlantic · updated 09 Jul 14:52Z
Nino-3.4 at +2.0 and rising keeps the basin in a El Nino regime; 2/2 agencies read the season below-normal.
Nino-3.4 +2.0
▲+1.4/3mo
Climo peak -62d
Season Day 38
Seasonal consensus · agency outlooks
| Agency | Named | Hurr | Major | ACE | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 11 | 5 | 2 | 70 | ▼ below |
| NOAA | 8-14 | 3-6 | 1-3 | — | ▼ below |
2/2 agencies read the season below-normal.
Monthly climatology · peak -62d
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Reference climatology — NHC Atlantic climatology. Bars are share of annual activity by month, not a forecast.
The trigger board · what would have to change
| Condition | Now | Trips at | What we watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Nino intensity (Nino-3.4) | +2.0 | relaxes < +1.0 | gap +1.0 · ONI trend |
| Main-development-region shear | elevated | sustained relaxation window | MJO phase 1-2 arrival |
| Days to climatological peak | - | window opens at seasonal peak | Cabo Verde wave train |
Every figure sourced to a live feed. Thresholds are what we're watching, not forecasts.
The call ledger · graded in public
5 calls · 5 open
· 0 confirmed · 0 wrong · 0 graded
open
Basis: Very strong SON-peaking El Nino suppressing peak-season activity via wind shear; NOAA/CSU/CPC/IRI all point the same way.
open
Basis: CSU 10 June landfall probabilities, El Nino shear regime.
open
Basis: GoM is ~1% of US marketed gas (vs 17% in 2005) but ~13-14% of US crude; the gas exposure is now onshore LNG terminals, not offshore shut-ins.
Arm Storm Watch
One email the day this page flips to ACTIVE, then one per advisory that moves an ETI band. Nothing else — no digest, no marketing.
Free. Powered by NHC/JTWC advisories + EnergyReader's Energy Threat Index.