2026 Tropical Cyclone Season Tracker
Agency forecasts, the El Niño driver, and EnergyReader's calls — graded against what actually happens.
The number that moved · Niño-3.4 (weekly)
A strengthening El Niño is the season's dominant driver — it suppresses Atlantic activity through wind shear and tilts Q4 toward a warmer US winter. Above roughly +1.5°C is a strong event; +2.0°C is very strong.
Forecast scorecard
| Basin · Agency | Issued | Named | Hurr. | Major | ACE | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU atlantic | 2026-06-10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 70 | ▼ below |
| NOAA atlantic | 2026-05-21 | 8–14 | 3–6 | 1–3 | — | ▼ below |
| GuyCarpenter wpac | 2026-05-01 | — | — | — | — | ≈ near |
Newest snapshot per agency. CSU cut Apr→Jun on rising El Niño confidence.
The call ledger — our positions, graded
Below-normal Atlantic hurricane risk premium for Q4 energy prices.
Basis: Very strong SON-peaking El Nino suppressing peak-season activity via wind shear; NOAA/CSU/CPC/IRI all point the same way.
US major-hurricane landfall odds run ~half of climatology this season (CONUS 24% vs 43%, Gulf 14% vs 27%).
Basis: CSU 10 June landfall probabilities, El Nino shear regime.
Gulf hurricane risk to gas has moved onshore: a terminal strike is bearish Henry Hub, bullish TTF/JKM.
Basis: GoM is ~1% of US marketed gas (vs 17% in 2005) but ~13-14% of US crude; the gas exposure is now onshore LNG terminals, not offshore shut-ins.
The strong El Nino (warm-US-winter tilt) is a bigger Q4 gas driver than the hurricane season itself.
Basis: Strong-El-Nino analogues 1997-98 and 2015-16 = quiet Atlantic + weak winter gas.
El Nino track-shift raises above-normal Japan/Korea typhoon landfall risk — an LNG-demand-corridor risk.
Basis: Guy Carpenter May outlook; El Nino NE recurvature.
Every call is falsifiable. The weekly Storm Watch moves these off “open.”