EIA Forecasts Growing US Gas Pipeline Exports to Mexico as LNG Buildout Claims Larger Share
Mexico's 75% dependence on US pipeline gas sits alongside an EIA-projected 30% expansion in American LNG exports by 2027.
NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas traded Thursday (2026-08-06) at $2.64/MMBtu, near multi-month lows, as the EIA projected earlier this year that US natural gas pipeline exports — with Mexico the primary destination — would rise through 2027 alongside a roughly 30% expansion in US LNG export capacity. The same production growth underpinning both forecasts leaves the two export channels competing for a supply base that is large but not unlimited.4
Mexico imports more than 6.5 billion cubic feet per day of US pipeline gas, covering roughly 75% of national demand. That figure makes Mexico one of the world's largest single-country consumers of US gas, and one of the most exposed to any shift in how American producers allocate supply between domestic consumption, southward pipeline flow, and LNG terminals heading east and west.4
At $2.64/MMBtu Thursday (2026-08-06), Henry Hub prices make Mexican imports highly cost-competitive. JKM spot, the Asian LNG benchmark, held at $21.14/MMBtu on Thursday (2026-08-06) — roughly eight times the Henry Hub price. The spread drives export logic: every additional liquefaction cargo represents far higher margin than the same gas flowing through a pipeline to Monterrey or Guadalajara.4
That arithmetic is already pulling feedgas toward export terminals. Flows to US LNG facilities climbed to 18.4 Bcf/d in the week of May 27 (2026-05-27), up 8.8% week over week, FXEmpire reported. Global tightness is amplifying the demand. Qatar's Ras Laffan facility has been running at reduced capacity since damage earlier this year removed roughly 20% of global LNG supply from the market, keeping European and Asian buyers competitive for US cargoes.3,2
The production backdrop does provide some cushion. Lower-48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in Q1 2026, up 4% year on year, the EIA said, with full-year growth of 3% projected. The Permian Basin provides most of that increment — EIA expects the region to hit 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% above 2025 levels — followed by a further 10% gain in 2027 as pipeline infrastructure constraints ease. The Haynesville, which feeds the Gulf Coast LNG corridor more directly, is forecast to grow 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.1
Still, constraints are real and acknowledged. The EIA noted in its May 2026 (2026-05-21) Short-Term Energy Outlook that Permian growth faces near-term infrastructure limitations before projecting alleviation later in the year. Until that capacity arrives, production gains may not simultaneously serve both rising LNG feedgas demand and growing Mexico pipeline volumes.1
Lower-48 dry gas production recently reached 110.6 Bcf/d, up 3.1% year over year and near all-time highs, FXEmpire data showed. US storage stood about 6.6% above the five-year seasonal average as of late May 2026 (2026-05-27). Both readings suggest no near-term shortage for Mexico's pipeline imports — but both also reflect a supply picture that accelerating LNG buildout is progressively drawing down.3
Mexico has no material LNG import terminal capacity to substitute for US pipeline supply if volumes tighten. The EIA's export and production projections carry execution risk around Permian infrastructure timelines and Haynesville capacity additions, with both contingent on above-ground construction proceeding as planned. How quickly Haynesville output grows relative to new LNG project ramp schedules will be the clearest signal for whether Mexico's share of US gas export capacity holds or begins to compress.1,4