Asian LNG Imports Fall 10% in September as China Retreats and South Asia Goes Dark
Kpler data show a 2.16 million-ton monthly collapse in Asian LNG flows, splitting between China's deliberate pullback and price-rationed buyers across South Asia.
Asian LNG imports fell to 20.09 million tons in September 2026, down from 22.25 million tons in August 2026 and 22.27 million tons in September 2025, according to Kpler estimates — a drop of roughly 9-10% against both the prior month and the prior year. The move reverses a stronger run that saw July 2026 come in around 23.05 million tons, approximately 6% above the same month a year earlier.7
The aggregate number conceals two very different situations. China is pulling back deliberately, as rising domestic production and expanded pipeline supply from Russia displace spot and term cargoes. South Asian buyers — Bangladesh among them — are not strategically rebalancing; they are simply priced out.7
China's retreat has been building for some time. The country remained the world's largest LNG importer in 2025 but volumes fell by 8.9 million tonnes to 69.77 million tonnes for the year, driven by mild early-season demand, higher domestic output and ramped-up flows via the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline, according to the International Gas Union's 2026 world LNG report.4
Russia's pipeline gas has given Beijing a durable lever over its LNG import bill. Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation signed a legally binding memorandum to build the 50 billion-cubic-meter Power of Siberia 2 route, which would deepen that dependency and add another displacement source for seaborne LNG. The agreement also included capacity expansions on the existing eastern route.2
The South Asian side of the split looks very different. World Pipelines reported in July 2026 that prices were doing the rationing across South Asia, with poorer buyers stepping back from the spot market rather than contracting at current levels. Taiwan sits at the other end of the spectrum — expected to replace more than 75% of any LNG shortfall via spot purchases, a ratio that reflects purchasing power more than any changed demand signal.3
Platts JKM LNG front-month settled at $27.51 per MMBtu at Saturday's (2026-09-20) close. Bangladesh, one of the region's most price-sensitive importers, cannot absorb cargoes at those prices without sovereign budget pressure. September's headline drop therefore reflects genuine demand destruction in the low-income tier, not a seasonal withdrawal that reverses when weather changes.7,3
Europe's re-emergence as a competing buyer is compounding the problem for price-sensitive Asian markets. Europesays reported on Saturday (2026-09-19) that European buyers, after delaying purchases expecting prices to fall, were forced back into the spot market and bidding aggressively against Asian buyers. Traders are already drawing parallels to winter 2022, when European utilities were compelled to buy at peak prices after sitting out the rally.6
The demand picture in Asia looked very different not long ago. When Wood Mackenzie tracked China's LNG surge in 2021, the firm forecast 11 million tonnes of Chinese demand growth that year alone, projecting China would account for over half of the 18 million tonnes of global LNG demand growth. Gas-fired power generation in China rose 14% year-on-year in the first four months of 2021. That era has passed.1
India added 7.1 million tonnes per annum of regasification capacity in 2025 through the commissioning of the Chhara LNG terminal and an expansion at Dabhol, pushing the country to fourth globally in regas capacity at 52.5 mtpa across eight terminals, according to IGU. Physical imports still fell 1.5 million tonnes in 2025 to 24.60 million tonnes, suggesting infrastructure build-out is running ahead of willingness to pay at current prices.4
Experts writing for Energy Tracker Asia in September 2026 argued that the broader LNG growth model in Asia faces a structural demand problem, as the bridge-fuel thesis that underpinned project financing comes under pressure from both cheaper renewables and tighter buyer budgets.5
The bearish signal from Asian demand sits alongside a Platts JKM LNG front-month price at $27.51 that shows no sign the market has priced in a sustained demand collapse. Weak physical volumes from China and South Asia against an elevated spot price reflect the competing pull from European buyers and the thin spot availability created by long-term contract commitments elsewhere. Chinese spot re-entry in the winter heating season is the next potential catalyst; if South Asian buyers remain absent long enough to tip the balance before Beijing returns, the gap in demand could widen further than the headline monthly figure suggests.7,6