Americas Oil Output Surge Cushions but Does Not Replace Middle East Losses
Brazil hit a June crude record while U.S. production averaged 13.6 million bpd through 2025, limiting how far Gulf disruptions can push prices.
Brazil's crude oil production reached a record 4.5 million barrels per day in June (2026), up 19% from a year earlier and roughly 4% above May, according to the country's regulator, the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, known by its acronym ANP. Oil and natural gas output together reached 5.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day that month. The figures establish Brazil as one of the most consequential swing producers outside OPEC at a time when the Americas region is reshaping the global supply balance.4
Petrobras-operated fields drove the result. They accounted for about 87% of total Brazilian production in June, either alone or in consortium with partners, ANP data show. Output has since retreated from the June high but held above 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to ANP's daily figures.4
The Brazilian record sits inside a wider Americas supply push. U.S. crude oil production averaged a record 13.586 million barrels per day across 2025, up 2.7% year on year and equal to 15.8% of global crude output, according to EIA's International Energy Statistics. The U.S. has held the world's top producer rank since 2018.3
The Permian Basin supplied the bulk of that growth. It averaged 6.6 million bpd in 2025, up 4% versus 2024, and accounted for roughly 48% of total U.S. crude production, per EIA data. Measured against its closest competitors, U.S. output ran about 40% higher on average than either Russia or Saudi Arabia.3
Growth held despite weak prices. West Texas Intermediate averaged $65 per barrel across 2025. Earlier in the shale cycle, that price range would have forced operators to curtail activity; cost deflation and productivity gains kept Permian volumes climbing regardless.3
Russia produced 10.161 million bpd last year, a 0.6% annual decline that left it with an 11.8% share of global supply. Saudi Arabia produced 9.727 million bpd, up 5.7% as OPEC+ began easing collective output curbs, according to data from the Statistical Review of World Energy.3
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $79.20 per barrel as of 06:04 UTC on Thursday (2026-08-06), with NYMEX WTI front-month at $74.90. Both benchmarks remain partly insulated from non-OPEC supply additions by the ongoing disruption in the Persian Gulf.
The IEA's latest Oil Market Report found that global production remained around 9.4 million bpd below pre-conflict levels even after the partial restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipments lifted June output. Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf output had been curtailed by roughly 14.5 million bpd at the peak of the disruption, with the conflict drawing down close to 500 million barrels from global crude stockpiles by June.2,1
The Americas supply gains are real. They are not a substitute for that volume. What they do is limit how far prices spike in a disrupted market and slow the pace of inventory drawdown. Brent at $79.20 on Thursday (2026-08-06) reflects both dynamics pressing simultaneously: genuine supply risk from the Middle East being absorbed against a record wave of production from the Western Hemisphere.
Petrobras's ability to sustain throughput above 5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day through the third quarter is now the operational figure to watch. If Brazilian volumes hold, the Americas cushion stays intact and the pressure on Gulf producers to accelerate restoration remains high. If maintenance cycles or reservoir performance trim output below that level, the balance tips back toward the disruption narrative, and ICE Brent front-month faces renewed upward pressure with less offsetting supply to contain it.4