Shell Warns Hormuz Supply Buffers Near Their Limit as Brent Tops $100
Shell chief economist Adam Ritchie says markets have proved resilient to US-Iran war disruptions but warns the capacity to absorb further shocks is diminishing.
Shell chief economist Adam Ritchie said on Wednesday (2026-09-16) that oil and gas markets had been "remarkably resilient" to supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war, but that the "shock absorbers" may now be "wearing thin," Montel reported. ICE Brent front-month stood at $103.37 per barrel as of 2026-09-20. Dubai crude, more directly exposed to Hormuz transit constraints, was priced at $115.46 — a premium of more than $12 over Brent that points to where physical market stress is concentrated.8
The warning comes after months of improvised adaptation by producers, traders and buyers across the region. Iran seized control of the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the outbreak of war with the United States and Israel, using threats and attacks on international shipping to bring maritime traffic to a near standstill, giving Tehran leverage over a passage that carries a significant share of global oil and gas supply, OilPrice.com reported. Iran subsequently eased some restrictions as part of negotiations with Washington, allowing partial resumption of traffic, War on the Rocks reported.1,3
The conflict began on Feb. 28 (2026). By May 12 (2026), the U.S. operation had cost at least $29 billion, Foreign Policy reported. That included the loss or damage of at least 42 U.S. combat aircraft. But CSIS, writing in August (2026-08-05), described the broader military outcome as a "no war, no peace" stalemate, with the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran appearing dead and economic consequences for the region accumulating regardless.2,4
President Trump added uncertainty on Sept. 1 (2026-09-01) when he posted that the U.S. Navy had removed or detonated all mines from the International Waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Policy reported that ships encountered conditions that did not match Trump's account, with safe passage remaining uncertain despite the announcement.7
Markets had already shown their sensitivity to the diplomatic framework in mid-August. On Tuesday (2026-08-18), after Trump said the United States was not seeking an extension of its agreement with Iran, ICE Brent front-month topped $91 per barrel, a near 2% rise since Monday (2026-08-17), Fox News reported. NYMEX WTI front-month climbed from around $82 to above $85 over the same period. ICE Brent has since risen to $103.37.5
The economic toll in the Gulf has been severe. Kuwait faces an 8% GDP contraction this year because of the war, OilPrice.com reported. Qatar's position is more acute: its LNG exports are entirely dependent on the strait remaining passable, with no alternative export route available. OilPrice.com reported Qatar is set to book an economic contraction as a direct consequence of that dependence. JKM Asian LNG was priced at $27.51 per MMBtu on 2026-09-20.6
Those vulnerabilities are driving infrastructure investment aimed at bypassing Hormuz. Kuwait is in talks with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to expand the regional pipeline network to route crude through Fujairah and Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports. OilPrice.com also reported discussions on expanding the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey. Reuters, in the week of 2026-08-24, cited unnamed sources saying ports had become the Gulf's dominant investment priority: "If two years ago sports was the big buzz thing, I think for the time being, next year or two, they're going to say ports, ports, ports."6
Ritchie's warning points to a market that has absorbed seven months of conflict through rerouting, inventory drawdowns and partial diplomatic arrangements. Qatar's LNG export capacity remains entirely Hormuz-dependent, with pipeline alternatives still being negotiated. Any deterioration in passage conditions would leave Asian LNG buyers reliant on a strait that, as of September 2026, ships could still not reliably navigate despite U.S. official claims to the contrary.6,7,8