PetroChina Overseas Crude Output Falls 14.2% as Gulf Disruptions Reshape Gas Supply
The Chinese major's half-year results add a concrete production figure to the Strait of Hormuz supply shock that has driven European gas prices close to four-year highs.
PetroChina's first-half 2026 results, released Saturday (2026-09-19), showed overseas crude oil output fell 14.2% year-on-year, from 81.2 million barrels in the same period of 2025 to roughly 69.7 million barrels — the sharpest corporate measure yet of what Middle East disruptions have cost the group upstream.7
The headline group figure was more resilient. Total oil and gas equivalent output stood at 920.6 million barrels in H1 2026, down just 0.3% from 923.6 million barrels a year earlier, as domestic volumes absorbed most of the overseas shortfall. PetroChina's natural gas output actually rose, climbing 1.1% to 81.9 billion cubic feet. The overseas crude decline, though, is the number that connects most directly to a year of Gulf supply disruption. A 14.2% drop in international production across a single half-year coincides with documented shut-ins across the region that span crude, associated gas, and LNG export capacity.7
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's LNG normally transits, closed during the conflict and sent the World Bank Group's natural gas price index up 24% in March alone, month-on-month, according to data compiled by Hellenic Shipping News. That repricing has proved durable. ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €79.54/MWh in the September 20 (2026-09-20) weekend feed, just below the near-four-year high of around €81/MWh it briefly touched on September 15 (2026-09-15) as European buyers pushed to replenish depleted storage before winter.4,6
JKM spot stood at $27.51/MMBtu in the same September 20 (2026-09-20) snapshot. Asian buyers face a different dynamic: India's natural gas consumption is forecast to fall roughly 8% year-on-year in 2026, with the fertilizer sector leading the decline, after the West Asia conflict and Hormuz closure together choked off roughly half of the country's LNG imports from the Middle East, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. India's withdrawal from the spot market has released some cargoes for Atlantic basin buyers. But it has not come close to covering the supply gap.3
The EIA's May (2026-05-17) Short-Term Energy Outlook documented collective shut-ins of 10.5 million barrels per day across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain. Those shut-ins also captured associated gas that would otherwise have fed LNG export terminals.2
US production has moved in the opposite direction. Marketed natural gas output in the US Lower 48 averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in Q1 2026, up 4% from the same period of 2025, according to EIA data, with the agency projecting Permian region output of 29.2 Bcf/d for the full year, 6% above 2025 levels. But US molecules cannot simply substitute for Gulf LNG: Atlantic export capacity and arbitrage pricing both constrain how quickly incremental American gas reaches European and Asian buyers.1
Global natural gas demand was already at a record before this year's disruptions compounded the pressure. Consumption reached 4.202 trillion cubic meters in 2025, up 1.7% on the prior year, per the International Gas Union's Global Gas Report 2026. Reduced Indian buying has released some cargoes. Yet European buyers are still filling storage against thinner supply options, and ICE Endex TTF front-month at €79.54/MWh, close to four-year highs, reflects that persistent tightness.5,6
Gulf producers have not indicated when output can return to pre-conflict levels. That gap is what October storage injection data will either confirm or begin to close.7,2