EUA Dec-rolling holds at €80.75 as EU supply proposals split the carbon outlook
Energy Aspects and Carbon Market Watch diverge sharply on how much allowance supply the Commission's ETS review will release from 2027.
The EUA Dec-rolling contract sat at €80.75/tCO2 as of Saturday (2026-08-02), unchanged on the day, while conflicting EU policy proposals keep the next directional move contingent on Commission decisions that have yet to land.2,1
The divide runs between two proposals with similar implications for supply. Energy Aspects has said the launch of the EU's Industrial Decarbonisation Bank and an ETS investment booster scheme could place more carbon allowances in the market from next year, a development the consultancy expects to dampen prices.1
Carbon Market Watch has drawn a broader arc. A proposal to slow the rate at which supply falls could add allowances to the EU ETS for another three years, the NGO warned on Monday (2026-05-18), as Montel reported. Three years of additional supply would postpone the natural tightening that underpins the bullish case for holding Dec-rolling exposure into 2027.2
Both views lean bearish for price but differ sharply on scale and duration. Energy Aspects sees a bounded 2027 injection; Carbon Market Watch's warning spans a multi-year horizon. Neither position has been settled by the Commission review.1,2
The contract has already shown it can move on headline risk alone. The Dec 26 EUA contract fell to a two-week low on Monday (2026-06-08) as rising Middle East tensions coincided with a full primary auction schedule for EUAs that week, Montel reported. The move was supply and sentiment-driven, not fundamental, and the recovery since has been contained.4
The macro picture adds pressure on the demand side. ICE Brent crude front-month has declined more than 10%, a drop fast enough to shift market expectations away from further ECB tightening, sources told cryptobriefing.com on June 30 (2026-06-30).5
The ECB had raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11 (2026-06-11), projecting headline inflation at 3.0% for 2026 with energy costs as the primary driver. That urgency has since faded. Market projections had flagged potential downward revisions to 2026 GDP growth, with adverse scenarios placing the figure at 0.8% or lower, a number that translates directly into softer industrial output and weaker ETS compliance demand.5
Andrei Marcu, head of a climate roundtable, has called for the ETS to manage carbon costs rather than just prices as the Commission reviews the system and its Market Stability Reserve, Euractiv reported on Wednesday (2026-05-27). If that argument gains traction in the review, the Commission may prove more willing to use MSR parameters to cap price spikes than to simply absorb surplus.3
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas was last quoted at €59.05/MWh on Saturday (2026-08-02), within its recent range, showing no gas-led squeeze that would force additional EUA buying from the power sector. With no external prompt, policy is the only identifiable catalyst. The Commission's review document is the next concrete signal: if it validates Carbon Market Watch's three-year supply extension, Dec-rolling will face sustained selling pressure; if it confirms only the Decarbonisation Bank injection, the bearish case is more bounded. Either way, the first session after publication will not be a slow grind.2,1