Energy Aspects Warns European Gas Storage Could Hit 15% in Q1 2027
Record-low storage projected for early 2027 risks deliverability failures across Northwest European gas hubs, with UK bills potentially rising 25%.
European gas storage could fall as low as 15% in the first quarter of 2027, Energy Aspects warned on Tuesday (2026-09-15). That would be a historic low, and the point at which deliverability constraints begin to bite across Northwest European markets.6
Erisa Pasko, Energy Aspects' lead European gas analyst, said current storage sits at 67%, with an extremely mild winter potentially pushing that to a peak of 70%. But storage could still fall to 15% by early 2027, she said, suggesting that neither a warm winter nor current fill levels will provide sufficient protection.6
TTF front-month closed Tuesday (2026-09-15) at €80.08/MWh, down 3.45%, with THE M+1 off 4.61% at €80.98/MWh. ICE Brent crude front-month slipped 0.35% to $108.52/bbl in the same session. The gas selloff tracks the crude move rather than a shift in winter supply fundamentals.
Pasko said the concern at very low storage levels shifts from price to operations. "The thing is, when storage falls that low, you start getting deliverability issues," she said. "It's that there's going to be a lot of competition within Northwest European hubs, especially between Germany, the UK and France."6
The supply squeeze dates to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which trapped roughly 20% of daily global LNG flows, primarily Qatari and UAE exports. Reuters reported on August 6 (2026-08-06) that European gas stocks had already fallen to a record low, reviving comparisons to the 2022 energy crisis. Wood Mackenzie senior research analyst David Lewis called it a "very risky situation."4,3
Asian LNG demand has tightened the competition for spot cargoes. Goldman Sachs said preliminary May 2026 data showed Asian imports running about 4 million tonnes per annum above its 225 mtpa forecast, driven by China and South Korea. China's four-week average imports climbed to 48 mtpa from 36 mtpa in March, with Goldman projecting a further rise to around 67 mtpa in the third quarter as domestic inventories rebuilt. South Korea was at 42 mtpa, above April levels. Goldman told clients in May 2026 that "weak Asia demand has bought Europe time" — a window that has since closed.1
European buyers initially adopted a wait-and-see approach to spot LNG procurement after the Hormuz closures, according to Daily Sabah on August 18 (2026-08-18). That hesitation, compounded by the Asian demand surge, has left storage below where the region needs it to be entering a hard winter.5
The consumer consequences are already being estimated. The UK price cap had been forecast to rise 9% in January 2027, but Bloomberg Economics has suggested bills could increase 25%, nearly three times that forecast.6
EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Friday (2026-05-22), after a meeting of eurozone finance ministers, that higher energy costs are expected to drive EU inflation to 3.1% this year and 2.4% in 2027, both above earlier projections. Before the Iran war, EU power prices were already running at more than twice U.S. levels and roughly 50% above China's, according to the IEA.2
Pasko said on Tuesday (2026-09-15) it was not impossible that the disruption could extend into summer 2027. "The longer it goes on, obviously, the higher prices will go," she said. The JKM Asian LNG benchmark was $25.06/MMBtu in Tuesday's (2026-09-15) session, holding at levels that keep Asia competitive with European buyers for every available spot cargo through next year.6