Brent Claws Back from June's $72 Crash but Remains Below Pre-Conflict Levels
ICE Brent front-month has recovered roughly $17 from June's lows but sits below late-April peaks, with Persian Gulf exports at 75% of pre-war flow.
The September Brent crude contract fell below $93 a barrel on Sunday (2026-07-26), pulling back from a two-month high set during the week of July 13 (2026-07-13), after U.S. and Iranian forces refrained from military action in the Persian Gulf for a second consecutive day, according to The Hindu BusinessLine.5
By Wednesday (2026-07-29), ICE Brent front-month stood at $89.51 and NYMEX WTI front-month at $84.62 — a recovery of roughly $17 from June's lows, yet still below the elevated levels that prevailed in late April 2026 when U.S.-Iran tensions were at their sharpest. Persian Gulf exports had recovered to about 75% of pre-war levels by late June, Bloomberg calculated, and that figure has been compressing the supply premium steadily since.4,5
The trajectory to these levels moved in two violent phases. Brent dropped 14% through May 2026 as peace talks gained credibility, then plunged a further 20% in June 2026 — the worst monthly performance since March 2020, when prices fell 47%. On Friday (2026-06-26), Brent hit $72 a barrel, its lowest close since February 27. NYMEX WTI front-month touched $68.57 the same day, a four-month low.1,4
The June 26 decline was accelerated by tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz picking up speed, eroding the supply-disruption bid that had supported prices throughout the conflict. It also erased a 2%-plus rally from Thursday (2026-06-25), which had itself been triggered by news that the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by an unidentified projectile while sailing southeast of Oman.4
Waleed Said, technical analyst at GivTrade, wrote in a note sent to Rigzone on Friday (2026-06-26) that oil was moving lower "as the market removes part of the Middle East supply-risk premium." Said described Trump's public comments as influencing prices through three channels: demand expectations, supply chain confidence, and geopolitical risk.3
The partial recovery from June's trough ran into fresh resistance this month. Brent set its two-month high in the week of July 13 (2026-07-13), then gave it back on Sunday (2026-07-26) as diplomatic progress on the U.S.-Iran front continued without interruption.5
Demand signals have offered little upside support. OPEC lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, while the IEA projected global oil demand would decline by 1.1 million barrels per day year over year in 2026. The IEA separately estimated a production decline of 1.4 million barrels per day, which partially offsets the demand drag in the supply balance but does not erase it.3,1
UBS cut its Brent price forecasts as ceasefire talks progressed and Hormuz traffic recovered, according to a report dated June 25 (2026-06-25). The bank pointed to Middle East supply resumption as the primary driver.2
Macro policy risk has crept back in. CME Group data showed traders pricing a 36% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at an upcoming meeting, according to The Hindu BusinessLine — a scenario that would tend to strengthen the dollar and dampen growth expectations for oil demand. Bloomberg Surveillance on Monday (2026-07-28) noted that U.S. inflation data had surprised to the downside while labor market readings came in below recent trend, a split that leaves the Fed's next move difficult to call.5,6
The pace of Hormuz normalization is what the oil market will keep scoring. At 75% of pre-war export levels, Persian Gulf flows still leave a residual supply gap that has helped keep Brent near $89 rather than back at $72. But if that figure climbs toward full recovery over the coming weeks, OPEC's already-trimmed demand growth forecast of 970,000 barrels per day would amplify any downward pressure — and the current price level would have few natural floors beneath it.4,3