Houthi Advance on Bab-al-Mandeb Pushes ICE Brent Above $105
With flows through Hormuz already near historic lows, Houthi militia movement toward the Red Sea's southern chokepoint removes the main rerouting alternative for Persian Gulf crude.
The November Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange hit $105.82 a barrel late Thursday (2026-09-10), a gain of 4.55% on the session, after Yemeni Houthi forces advanced toward the Bab-al-Mandeb strait — the narrow passage at the Red Sea's southern end that has served as the principal rerouting path for crude unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz.8
ICE Brent front-month sat at $104.32 a barrel as of 2026-09-12, with markets closed for the weekend. The Thursday (2026-09-10) move took the benchmark near a four-month high and extended a rally that has pushed Brent more than 60 per cent above its year-opening levels, Bloomberg data cited by CNBC TV18 showed.8,4
The supply disruption is deep. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz stood at 8 to 9 million barrels per day in the week before fighting resumed on August 30 (2026-08-30), Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, told the Financial Times. Since then, volumes through the waterway have fallen below 2 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency said last month it expected global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, roughly 4 per cent of global consumption.6
Not all flow estimates agree. The Hindu Business Line cited data suggesting Hormuz throughput may have recovered toward 10 million barrels per day despite the escalation — nearly five times the Rystad figure. Tracking real-time throughput is difficult when vessels alter transponder signals and reroute to avoid naval patrols.5
Persian Gulf flows have fallen below 45 per cent of pre-war levels, Goldman Sachs analysts noted. Red Sea exports had become increasingly important in routing Persian Gulf crude to global buyers, the bank said, meaning any serious interdiction of vessels approaching Bab-al-Mandeb would compound the Hormuz shortage. Goldman Sachs said Brent could rise above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions continued, while characterizing the broader risk picture as "tilted to the upside."1
Brent had not been above $100 since late July before crossing that level on Wednesday (2026-09-02), following a US military strike on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, Iran's main crude-export hub, CNBC TV18 reported. It cleared $101 as conflict coverage intensified, setting up Thursday's (2026-09-10) move past $105.6,4,7
Asian buyers were already registering the import cost. Indian Oil Corporation and HPCL fell 2 to 2.5 per cent on July 23 (2026-07-23) when Brent first crossed back above $98, CNBC TV18 data showed, reflecting the fiscal pressure on downstream operators in markets where domestic fuel prices are regulated.2
US supply buffers offer limited relief. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub sat below 20 million barrels, a threshold widely viewed as the operational minimum for WTI futures deliveries and the lowest seasonal reading at that hub since 2014, Rigzone reported. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has also been drawn down significantly since the conflict began, limiting scope for coordinated releases.3
The Bab-al-Mandeb element is new. For months, Hormuz's constrained throughput was partially offset by tankers rerouting south through the Red Sea, adding transit time and cost but keeping volumes moving. If Houthi forces achieve meaningful control of the strait approach, or close the passage to commercial tanker traffic, that bypass disappears. Goldman's $120 forecast assumes Hormuz pressure alone; adding Bab-al-Mandeb constraints would require a fresh assessment of where supplies can be sourced quickly.1,8
Whether tanker traffic through the Red Sea's southern approaches holds in the days following Thursday's (2026-09-10) militia advance is now the more immediate supply indicator. Rystad's below-2-million barrel Hormuz figure, if confirmed by more recent data, suggests the disruption is deeper than markets priced through much of August. Both numbers need updating before markets reopen on Monday (2026-09-14).6,1