Iran's Hormuz Levy Keeps ICE Brent Above $97 as Gulf States Restore Power
ICE Brent front-month held above $97 on July 24 as Iran's unresolved cargo levy and ongoing Gulf strikes left supply route risk unpriced.
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $97.26 a barrel, down 0.56% on the session on July 24 (2026-07-24), while NYMEX WTI front-month stood at $89.78, off 0.37%. Both contracts remain well above the levels that prevailed before the Hormuz confrontation escalated, with ICE Brent having surged to a more than five-week high of $90.75 on July 20 (2026-07-20) before pulling back to $88.26 by 05:00 ET on the same day. The further climb to current levels reflects no single resolution.7
The driver is a conflict that has grown incrementally worse each week. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz shut on July 12 (2026-07-12), and US Central Command said American forces carried out a new round of strikes overnight into July 13 (2026-07-13) as both sides continued exchanging attacks while issuing contradictory statements on whether the waterway remained open to commercial traffic. US President Trump said the strait was open. Tehran said it was not. Energy Voice reported that markets were baffled.6,4
On July 13 (2026-07-13), ICE Brent had already risen 4.3% to over $79 a barrel by 05:54 London time on fears that renewed clashes could choke Hormuz flows, according to Rigzone data. The subsequent move above $90 on July 20 (2026-07-20) came even as an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson offered scope for negotiations if conditions aligned with the country's national interests — suggesting that diplomatic signals alone were not enough to reassure buyers with physical exposure to the strait.4,7
Iran's Hormuz announcement introduced a condition that has complicated any straightforward reopening. Tehran said cargo transiting the waterway would be subject to a 20% levy, claimed to be reimbursable "as a matter of fairness." No shipping operator or insurer has publicly confirmed acceptance of those terms, according to Energy Voice. The practical effect has been to sustain elevated war-risk assessments and keep route decisions uncertain for tanker operators moving Gulf crude to Asian buyers.6
Iranian forces targeted two Emirati tankers, the Mombasa and Al Bahiyah, transiting the strait. Kuwait and Bahrain have started restoring power to residential areas after Iranian strikes on both Gulf nations, attacks carried out in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian territory, oilprice.com reported. The strikes mark a broadening of Iranian targeting to include civilian infrastructure in US-allied states.6,3
The Kuwait episode traces back further. Iranian drones and missiles struck Kuwait International Airport overnight on June 3 (2026-06-03), hitting Terminal One, killing at least one person, injuring several others, and causing what Kuwaiti authorities described as significant material damage. Kuwait closed its airspace immediately. That strike followed the initial ceasefire collapse, in which US Central Command said Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at neighboring Middle Eastern countries and American forces intercepted them and struck an Iranian command center in response, Rigzone reported on June 3 (2026-06-03).2,1
Bahrain's position carries weight beyond its size. As Foreign Policy noted on July 14 (2026-07-14), Bahrain has consistently taken the most hawkish line on Iran among Gulf states, joining the Abraham Accords in 2020 and hosting the US Fifth Fleet. Iranian strikes on Bahraini power infrastructure carry a symbolic dimension that tanker operators and Gulf crude buyers are pricing into their planning alongside the physical disruption.5
ANZ analysts, cited by finance.yahoo.com on July 20 (2026-07-20), said the supply narrative had become more bearish despite prices pulling back from intraday highs that day. That assessment has since been borne out by ICE Brent's climb to $97.26 on July 24 (2026-07-24). The OPEC basket was priced at $102.76 per barrel on July 24 (2026-07-24), reflecting how Gulf producers' own export exposure to Hormuz instability is being absorbed into posted prices.7
For Asian buyers, JKM front-month stood at $21.82/MMBtu on July 24 (2026-07-24). A prolonged Hormuz disruption tightens the Atlantic-to-Pacific LNG arbitrage at a point when European buyers are already competing for spot cargoes, adding a second layer of pressure on Asian import costs.
The immediate signal is whether Iran enforces or quietly abandons the 20% cargo levy. Enforcement would require Iranian naval assets intercepting commercial vessels — a step that would push war-risk insurance premiums sharply higher and force rerouting decisions for operators currently transiting the strait. A drop of the levy without announcement would be the clearest market indication that Tehran has limited appetite for a full commercial blockade. Neither outcome has materialized as of July 24 (2026-07-24).6