Brent Crude Hits $98.28 as US Strikes Near Strait of Hormuz Fuel New Supply Fears
Oil prices surge after fresh US military action near the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude front-month topping $98 on Thursday.
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $98.28 a barrel on Thursday (2026-07-23), up 0.02% on the day, while NYMEX WTI crude front-month held at $90.61.2 The gains follow fresh US military strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries nearly 20% of global oil supplies according to analyst estimates.1,2
The escalation comes just weeks after Washington and Tehran signed an interim memorandum of understanding to halt the conflict, traders noted.5 That deal had triggered a sharp selloff in June — ICE Brent crude front-month fell below $80 on Friday (2026-06-12) as supply disruption fears faded.4
Now those fears are back with force. The US military launched strikes on more than 80 Iranian military sites earlier this month, escalating what had been a periodic campaign of tit-for-tat attacks into something closer to open confrontation.7 Tehran responded by claiming it had shut the Strait of Hormuz, though oil flows through the waterway continued, albeit under heightened risk.3
The price action has been dramatic. ICE Brent crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.28 on Thursday (2026-07-09), following a 12% surge over the previous three sessions.8 By Tuesday (2026-07-07), ICE Brent crude had gained 4% to $77.36, while on Thursday (2026-05-21) it had jumped 1.9% to $96.03 as the strikes intensified.7,1 The benchmark has now reversed nearly all of the 30% decline it recorded in the second quarter.8
NYMEX WTI crude has tracked ICE Brent crude higher. August NYMEX WTI crude futures rose 2.87% to $72.46 on Tuesday (2026-07-07), while by Thursday (2026-07-09) the contract had gained another 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $80.02.6,8 Both benchmarks are now trading at levels not seen since before the June peace deal collapse.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk. According to estimates from energy analytics firm Kpler, more than 90 million barrels of non-Iranian crude and around 70 million barrels of Iranian oil are currently waiting to be shipped from the Gulf region.4 Any sustained disruption to the waterway would trap those barrels, tightening a global market that had been bracing for a supply glut.
Analysts expect oil price volatility to remain high as geopolitical tensions continue to influence global energy markets through the rest of 2026.1 The centre upgraded its threat assessment for ships transiting the waterway to "severe," warning that further hostile action by Iran is possible.6
But a key tail risk is also brewing. Analysts estimate that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could increase significantly in the coming weeks if the conflict de-escalates, helping to restore normal supply conditions.4 The 160 million barrels waiting offshore represent a massive overhang — one that would crash into a market still absorbing the impact of the year-to-date rally.
The DXY was up 0.41% at 101.40 on Thursday (2026-07-23), a modest dollar bid that suggests broader risk-off positioning.8 The VIX jumped 12.40% to 18.77.8 For crude bulls, the next catalyst is clear: a single tanker incident in the Strait would send ICE Brent crude through $100. For bears, the overhang waiting offshore is the counterargument they are not yet making.