EU's Russian gas share holds at 18% as LNG imports hit record ahead of 2027 ban
Record Russian LNG flows into Europe expose the gap between Brussels' phase-out legislation and current buying behaviour.
The European Union imported a record 9.97 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia's Yamal facility in the first half of 2026, worth €5.96 billion, data show — a 16% increase from the same period a year earlier.5 The EU has legislated a phased ban on Russian LNG from 2027, making record imports in the six months before that deadline a direct test of the policy's enforcement.
Russian gas now accounts for 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, and that share has held flat through the first half of this year.1 The bloc's oil imports from Russia have fallen further, to 3% from around 30% over the same period — a divergence that reflects the different enforcement options available for pipeline gas versus seaborne LNG.1
Pipeline gas from Russia has all but stopped. State-owned Gazprom incurred losses of almost $7 billion in 2023, its first annual deficit since 1999, after European buyers severed long-term contracts.1 The transit route through Ukraine ended in January 2025.4 The Russian economy ministry now expects pipeline exports outside the former Soviet Union to fall 10.7% this year to 72 billion cubic metres.1
LNG has kept flowing via tanker from terminals that sanctions have not yet reached. Russian LNG exports this year are forecast to edge up 3% to 35.7 million metric tons, according to economy ministry projections.1 The H1 2026 record at Yamal suggests buyers have not been pulling back in anticipation of the 2027 ban.5
Moscow is reorienting east to compensate for lost European pipeline revenue. In 2025, gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline rose by around a quarter to 38.8 billion cubic metres, exceeding the route's planned annual capacity of 38 bcm.2 During President Putin's visit to Beijing in September 2025, the two countries agreed to lift annual volumes by a further 6 bcm to 44 bcm per year.2 A second pipeline from Sakhalin Island, committed at up to 10 bcm by 2027 and later raised to 12 bcm, adds to that reorientation.2 Bloomberg has reported that Russian gas supplied to China is priced at discounts as deep as 28%, compressing the revenue benefit of higher volumes.4
For oil, Europe's near-complete exit has been absorbed by Asian buyers. Russia's oil export forecast for this year was raised to 240.1 million tons from 229.7 million tons in the previous economy ministry projection.1 The economy ministry revised its total oil-and-gas export revenue forecast for 2026 down to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion, while raising the current-year figure to $206.1 billion from $200.3 billion.1 Urals crude traded at $66.84 per barrel as of Friday's close (2026-07-19), against ICE Brent crude front-month at $88.26 per barrel.
The forward risk for European gas traders is that the 2027 LNG ban arrives without adequate compensating supply. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Baku on 18 July (2026-07-18) to advance talks on expanding Azerbaijan's Southern Gas Corridor, but volumes from that route remain modest against what has been lost from Russian pipelines.3 LNG from Qatar and the United States has filled part of the gap, but both compete for cargoes with price-sensitive Asian buyers: Platts JKM LNG front-month settled at $20.98 per MMBtu as of Friday's close (2026-07-19).3
ICE Endex TTF front-month closed at €57.51 per MWh as of Friday's close (2026-07-19), with no evident premium for the supply risk building toward 2027.5 With nearly 10 million metric tons of Russian LNG absorbed in just the first six months of the year, the question for the market is not whether the ban is on the books but whether European buyers will comply when the deadline arrives — and whether alternative supply will be in place to prevent a repricing.5