Russia Adds Arc7 Capacity to Yamal Fleet as Conventional Tanker Shortfall Caps Throughput
Three Arctic ice-class vessels are operating and a fourth is expected by year-end, but Rystad puts the conventional fleet needed for full Yamal capacity at 30 ships.
Russia now operates three Arc7 ice-class vessels capable of year-round Arctic navigation, and Moscow says a fourth will arrive before the end of 2026, Rigzone reported on Tuesday (2026-09-01). ICE Endex TTF front-month gas rose 4.46% to €69.77/MWh by 08:15 UTC Tuesday (2026-09-01), as European buyers remained reliant on the Russian Arctic supply chain they are nominally planning to phase out.6
Ashley Sherman, a senior LNG analyst at Vortexa, said four Arc7s could in principle allow two Yamal LNG trains to operate at near-full capacity. The qualifier is direct: "only if transshipment can scale up efficiently in Russian waters." Transshipment, the process of shifting LNG cargoes from Arc7 carriers to conventional tankers at floating storage units in Norwegian and Russian waters, has been the binding operational constraint on Yamal exports since Western sanctions narrowed the pool of conventional vessels available to the project.6
But Rystad Energy estimates Russia could need as many as 30 conventional vessels to bring the full Yamal plant to capacity. Three or four Arc7s address the terminal-loading side of the logistics chain, not the onward delivery leg.6
European buyers have been absorbing Yamal volumes regardless of those logistical limits. EU ports received 8.37 million tonnes of LNG from the Yamal project in the first five months of 2026, a 17.9% increase from the same period in 2025, based on Kpler shipping data analyzed by environmental group Urgewald. Europe accounted for 96.7% of Yamal LNG exports during that span; only four cargoes reached China.4
One monthly snapshot shows how concentrated the flows have become. Twenty-three of Yamal LNG's 25 cargoes in the period went to European ports, representing 92% of the project's output, GCaptain reported. Brussels has been proposing new restrictions on Russian LNG shipping even as those volumes kept growing.4
EU regulator Acer reported on Wednesday (2026-07-01) that the bloc imported 11% more LNG from Russia in January through May compared with a year earlier, with Russian energy accounting for 12% of total EU gas demand. Existing Russian LNG and pipeline gas contracts in the EU run to 45-55 billion cubic metres per year; authorised LNG contracts alone covered 20-32 bcm through the end of May, Acer said, with the volume increases attributed to contractual arrangements rather than new purchasing decisions.5
An analyst told Montel on Wednesday (2026-06-10) that European buyers would likely continue taking incremental Russian volumes until the full import ban takes effect, with EU Russian LNG imports already running 17% above year-earlier levels. The contracts are in place and the gas keeps flowing.3
The 2027 cutoff is already reshaping procurement planning across the region. A Hungarian trader told Montel that LNG demand would expand as Russian pipeline volumes cease next year. "Once Russian deliveries stop in 2027, LNG will play a key role," the trader said. Bulgaria's Balkan Gas Hub launched a new LNG auction service on Wednesday (2026-05-20) as the region prepared to replace Russian pipeline flows with seaborne supply.1
A Danish shipyard has remained the single EU facility maintaining LNG carriers from Novatek's Yamal terminal, the Financial Times reported, citing a local NGO. The arrangement has drawn scrutiny from environmental and sanctions-monitoring groups without yet producing any disruption to supply.2
The gap between three operating Arc7s and the 30 conventional vessels Rystad estimates are needed for full Yamal capacity sets the ceiling on Russian Arctic LNG output for the foreseeable future. A fourth Arc7 by the end of 2026 closes part of that gap on the loading side alone. Still, whether Russian transshipment operations can be scaled to match the ice-class loading rate, and whether Brussels tightens shipping restrictions further before winter sets in, will shape how much Yamal gas actually reaches European import terminals over the next twelve months.6,4