US gas output races Qatar outages as JKM holds above $16 and TTF stays near €48
Rising Permian and Haynesville production must fill LNG gaps torn open by the Hormuz closure, with Corpus Christi utilisation the swing barometer.
ICE Endex TTF front-month settled near €48.26 on Friday (2026-07-10), essentially flat on the day but still far above the $14.80 per million Btu the EIA recorded for the European benchmark after the February 28 closure of the Strait of Hormuz.3 Platts JKM LNG front-month held at $16.52 the same session, while NYMEX Henry Hub front-month sat at $2.94, leaving the transatlantic spread wide.3
The divergence keeps the United States as swing supplier to both Europe and Asia. The EIA reported on 2026-05-19 that European and Asian gas prices had pulled away from US prices since the Hormuz closure.3 While TTF and JKM trade at a large premium to Henry Hub, every US liquefaction train has reason to run flat out.3
Whether the upstream can keep feeding those trains is the live question. Lower 48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% from a year earlier, according to the EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook.1 The agency expects 3% growth for the full year, driven mainly by the Permian, which it projects at 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, or 6% more than in 2025.1
Pipeline constraints in the Permian have been the recurring drag. The EIA expects those bottlenecks to ease later this year and projects Permian output to grow 10% in 2027.1 Haynesville, the other major dry-gas play, is projected to rise 6% this year and 8% next.1 For a market that has learned to discount US supply promises, these are large numbers that have to show up in physical flows.
The Asian benchmark's retreat tells the same tightness story from the demand side. LNG prices in Asia surged above $25 in late March after damage to Qatar's export infrastructure and the Hormuz blockade cut supply forecasts.4 The pullback to current levels reflects some demand destruction and the gradual arrival of US cargoes, but the balance stays tight.4
China has an alternative that European buyers do not. The proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline could anchor Russian gas flows eastward and reassert Moscow's weight as a supplier to Beijing if it materialises.2 That optionality gives Chinese buyers room to resist paying up for Atlantic-basin LNG, which matters for how much US supply Europe can count on.2
Corpus Christi sits at the centre of the calculation. Cheniere's Corpus Christi complex is the marginal read on whether US associated-gas growth can match the global call on American molecules, so its utilisation is worth tracking closely.5
The bearish case is straightforward. Consensus across 21 signals leans bearish, and the EIA's 3% annual growth projection implies only a few Bcf/d of extra supply against Qatari outages.1 With more than 2,020 Bcf pulled from US storage over the November-to-March withdrawal season, the cushion is thinner than the headline growth rate suggests.1
The contrarian read pushes back. Bullish JKM signals tied to geopolitics and supply score as the strongest counterweights, resting on the argument that Qatari disruption, not US production weakness, is the binding constraint.4 On that view, Corpus Christi can run at nameplate provided the Permian pipeline fixes land on schedule.
The conflict has also reshaped the logistics around it. More than 60 million visitors to the Caribbean must be supplied almost entirely by sea, largely with US goods, even as Chinese port construction adds a strategic layer to an already stretched regional network.6
Watch the pace of Permian pipeline relief. If the EIA's expected easing arrives later this year, Corpus Christi utilisation can climb and the Henry Hub-to-TTF arb closes through volume rather than price.1 If it slips, JKM stays elevated and European buyers keep competing with Asia for every cargo the US can ship. The next EIA storage report will show whether the rebuild has begun in earnest.1