Qatar LNG Restart Timeline Slips as Analysts Weigh EUR 100/MWh Stress Scenario
Infrastructure repairs at Ras Laffan and cargo diversions toward Asia widen the gap between an orderly Qatari restart and a prolonged European gas crunch.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas traded at €50.02 on Thursday (2026-07-09), roughly EUR 5/MWh above where analysts expect it to average through 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in time to restore Qatari LNG flows over the summer. A Montel poll from Friday (2026-05-15) put that reopening-scenario annual average at EUR 45/MWh.2 The gap between those two points is narrow. What matters more is the upside tail.
In a stress scenario where Qatari LNG exports stay shut for a full three months, analyst projections surveyed by Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21) showed TTF could approach EUR 100/MWh — roughly double the current level.1 That estimate reflected the state of the market in late May (2026-05); the trajectory since has depended entirely on whether Ras Laffan's rehabilitation proceeds on schedule or stalls.
The disruption traces to the earliest days of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, which began on 28 February (2026-02-28). The conflict effectively closed a shipping route handling roughly 20% of global LNG flows.2 At Ras Laffan, Qatar's main liquefaction hub and source of approximately 17% of world LNG supply, two of its 14 units sustained missile strikes, removing about 3% of global supply from the market, the Economist reported.3
Kpler estimated that Hormuz throughput fell by roughly 4.2 million barrels per day in April (2026-04) compared with February (2026-02), a cut of close to 15%.3 Gas flows mirrored that decline. By April (2026-04-01), Montel was reporting that the conflict had "abruptly overturned" forecasts for a global LNG surplus, with analysts warning that price spikes remained likely regardless of reopening timing.8
Even after the strait reopens, the path back to full Qatari exports is not straightforward. Vessels staged near the United Arab Emirates to avoid transiting the strait face a multi-week repositioning process at materially higher cost than pre-war norms, the Economist noted. Restarting the two damaged liquefaction units at Ras Laffan will take additional time on top of that. Matt Wright of Kpler put the uncertainty plainly: "There are too many unknowns."3,6
Cargo diversions are accelerating the supply pressure on Europe. In mid-May (2026-05), a Nigerian LNG shipment bound for European terminals was redirected to Asia after prices there surged, Kpler reported. Platts JKM LNG front-month was last quoted at $16.57 on Thursday (2026-07-09), enough to pull flexible Atlantic cargoes eastward. Qasim Afghan of Spark Commodities said front-month arbitrage opportunities had "increased significantly," benefiting Asian destinations across several major import terminals.4
Go Katayama, a principal insight analyst at Kpler, said the Nigerian vessel diversion reflected a widening arbitrage window between the Atlantic and Pacific LNG markets. The shift is structural, not episodic.4
Industry experts told Montel on Wednesday (2026-04-22) that the combination of lost Qatari volumes and depleted EU gas storage levels could eventually force Europe to revisit Russian pipeline gas purchases. One participant noted: "Gas prices are not high, which means we're not incentivised enough to go back to Russian gas yet" — but that calculus shifts if the Qatari halt extends into late summer.7
Korean LNG carrier orders have also softened. A prolonged disruption in Qatar's energy sector is expected to weigh on new carrier orders from Korean shipbuilders, Korea JoongAng Daily reported in May (2026-05-19), even as broader shipyard utilisation has held up.5
The nearest concrete signal for European gas traders is the pace of Ras Laffan's unit-by-unit rehabilitation. Restoration of even one damaged liquefaction train would shift the supply balance and bring the EUR 45/MWh reopening scenario into reach. Without it, the EUR 100/MWh stress projection from late May (2026-05-21) remains the upper bound traders must hold in view.1