Qatari LNG Carrier Struck Exiting Hormuz, Raising Doubts Over Strait Agreement
The attack on the Al Rekayyat on Tuesday (2026-07-07) tests a US-Iran arrangement intended to keep Qatari LNG flowing through a waterway that has repeatedly disrupted supply since March.
A laden Qatari LNG carrier was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast in the early hours of Tuesday (2026-07-07) as it exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. The vessel, the Al Rekayyat, had loaded a cargo at Qatar's Ras Laffan facility earlier this month. The attack comes despite a US-Iran agreement that was supposed to halt strikes on shipping in the waterway.6
European gas markets moved sharply after news of the strike. ICE Endex TTF front-month rose to €46.88, while UK NBP front-month climbed 4.21% to €44.66. The moves reflect how exposed European buyers remain to Qatari supply disruptions, even as months of intermittent Hormuz risk had pushed some shipowners toward alternative routing.6
The attack on Tuesday (2026-07-07) is the latest in a sequence of blows to Qatari LNG output. Iranian missile strikes hit the Ras Laffan complex in March, triggering force majeure declarations across multiple supply chains. QatarEnergy extended that notice on deliveries to Italy's Edison at the Adriatic LNG Terminal until mid-June. A separate explosion tore through the Ras Laffan industrial area on Sunday (2026-06-21), leaving 54 injured and 18 missing, adding uncertainty over the pace of any capacity restoration.4,5
Routing had already become fragmented in the months before the July (2026-07-07) attack. In May, a QatarEnergy vessel — the Mihzem, laden with 178,000 cubic metres of LNG — made an apparent U-turn while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler vessel-tracking data reported by Montel showed. That reversal came days after QatarEnergy shipped its first cargo through the Strait since the March strikes, on Sunday (2026-05-17), a transit that had appeared to signal a gradual normalisation of the passage. It did not hold.1
Analysts had spotted signs of partial recovery at Ras Laffan in the weeks before the Tuesday (2026-07-07) strike. Wood Mackenzie research analyst Nadeem Ahmed told Montel he had observed heat signals at train 2, which carries capacity of 3.3 million tonnes per annum (4.5 billion cubic metres per year), consistent with recommissioning tests. That tentative progress now sits in an uncertain light.2
Replacing lost Qatari volumes was already seen as difficult. US LNG exporters are unlikely to further increase capacity to cover the shortfall in the short term, an analyst told Montel, adding that deferring maintenance at US export terminals was the only available lever — one that introduces its own operational risks.3
"The continued use of different shipping lanes suggests that traffic through the strait remains operational, but is fragmented as shipowners adopt different routing strategies based on their individual risk assessments," said Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst, in comments following the attack. That fragmentation drives up voyage times and freight costs for buyers on term contracts, who have limited ability to redirect cargoes on short notice.6
ICE Brent crude front-month was broadly flat at $73.79, down 0.19% as of Tuesday (2026-07-07) afternoon, while NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gained 1.54% to $3.29. The divergence between European gas and crude reflects the geographically specific nature of the Hormuz exposure. European gas imports depend heavily on Qatari LNG arriving via the Gulf; crude oil has a broader set of supply corridors insulating it from any single chokepoint.6
JKM spot for Asian LNG was flat at $16.06 as of Tuesday (2026-07-07), showing no immediate premium in response to news of the strike. Asian buyers — many of whom are long-term Qatari contract holders — have so far absorbed Hormuz risk through routing adjustments and cargo deferrals rather than a sustained spot premium, though that calculus may shift if the Al Rekayyat attack signals renewed targeting of laden vessels.6
Whether QatarEnergy issues an updated force majeure and how quickly shipowners adjust routing for scheduled Ras Laffan loadings in the coming days will determine how quickly the disruption feeds into delivered volumes. US LNG's inability to scale up fast enough to fill the gap leaves European buyers with a narrow set of options if Hormuz transits become untenable for a prolonged period.3,6