Edison Expects Gradual Qatari LNG Return as Europe's Gas Options Narrow
Edison, the Italian energy company, is counting on a gradual resumption of Qatari LNG supply as European gas markets contend with disruptions that have erased 2026 forecasts for an oversupplied market. ICE Endex TTF front-month was trading at €45.33 as of the close on Friday (2026-07-04), roughly 70% above where the contract settled at year-end 2025.2,3
Qatar accounts for around 20% of global LNG supply. Attacks on the Ras Laffan industrial complex, the world's largest integrated LNG production hub, eliminated volumes that global demand had anticipated as a buffer against seasonal tightness. Analysts cited by Montel on 21 May (2026-05-21) said the Middle East conflict had abruptly overturned forecasts pointing to an LNG oversupply through 2026.2,7,3
The price trajectory has been steep. ICE Endex TTF front-month futures closed the fourth quarter of 2025 at 26.73 euros per megawatt-hour, then surged more than 20% by the middle of January 2026, breaching 33 euros per megawatt-hour before easing somewhat in February, according to Elenger's quarterly market overview. EIA data from 19 May (2026-05-19) placed TTF at $14.80 per million British thermal units in the period immediately after the Strait of Hormuz closure — a level the market has since exceeded.3,5
European storage has made the supply picture more precarious. Gas inventories entered the 2026 injection season roughly 7.2 billion cubic metres — about 17% — below the prior year's level, according to Timera Energy analysis from 19 May (2026-05-19). Backwardation in the TTF forward curve, driven by the Middle East disruption, removed the economic incentive to inject early, leaving Europe with a thinner buffer ahead of winter than seasonal norms would suggest.4
The search for replacement cargoes has exposed how few options remain. Norwegian pipeline exports could add a modest 1 billion cubic metres to European buyers this summer if the Iran war delays Qatari restoration, an analyst told Montel on 19 May (2026-05-19). US LNG exporters are unlikely to raise throughput meaningfully in the short term; the only lever available is deferring scheduled maintenance at existing terminals, which yields limited incremental volumes, analysts said on 17 April (2026-04-17).1,7
Longer-term supply investment is accelerating. The Energy Industries Council estimated in late April (2026-04-28) that North and Central America could sanction 12 new LNG export projects this year, totalling 74 million tonnes per year of capacity, with Qatari disruptions cited as a key spur. New liquefaction capacity takes several years to commission and will do nothing for the 2026 or 2027 winter supply picture. Asian buyers are competing for every available cargo, with JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, sitting at $16.07 per million British thermal units as of Friday (2026-07-04).6,5
Edison's posture of expecting a gradual resumption reflects the key market judgment at stake across European utilities: not whether Qatar's exports return, but at what pace. Ras Laffan comprises multiple LNG trains; individual train restart could precede full-complex restoration by many months. If the first cargoes resume before winter demand peaks, the draw on European storage could moderate. If they do not, the market has already absorbed a lesson from this episode — that 2026's expected supply glut was always more fragile than headline LNG capacity numbers implied.2
The clearest near-term signal will come from technical assessments of train-by-train damage at Ras Laffan and any Qatari government guidance on export restart schedules. Storage fill rates through July and August will also matter: every billion cubic metres injected below last year's pace narrows the margin Europe has against a cold winter.2,4