Qatar LNG Restart Within Weeks, Prime Minister Tells FT as Markets Price In Recovery
Qatar's PM told the Financial Times on June 24 that LNG output could normalise in weeks; TTF and JKM have softened as traders position for the supply return.
Qatar's prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, told the Financial Times on Wednesday (2026-06-24) that the country's liquefied natural gas production could return to normal "within a few weeks," the clearest official statement yet on the timeline for restoring exports curtailed since the conflict with Iran erupted in early March.6
The comments arrive as prices fall rather than rise. ICE Endex TTF front-month dropped 2.10% to €41.67 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday (2026-06-24) and JKM spot traded at $15.74 per million British thermal units, suggesting markets are pricing in a significant supply recovery ahead of any formal resumption at sea.6
The Qatari recovery timeline has been assembled in stages. Last week (week of 2026-06-15), QatarEnergy told customers it could restore roughly 50% of its production capacity within a month of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz being restored, according to unnamed sources cited by Bloomberg. Within two months, Qatar could reach 80% of capacity, the same sources said.6,5
The preconditions remain unchanged: both QatarEnergy and the prime minister condition any restoration on safe transit through the Strait. Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial complex in mid-March disrupted roughly 12.8 million tonnes of LNG capacity, about 17% of the country's total exports, according to Korea JoongAng Daily citing industry data.2 A separate explosion at Ras Laffan on Monday (2026-06-22), caused by a technical malfunction rather than a military strike, injured more than 50 workers and left 18 unaccounted for by early that morning, with no updated capacity assessment from QatarEnergy.5
The Strait itself has been an unreliable passage since March. QatarEnergy shipped its first post-disruption LNG cargo through Hormuz on Sunday (2026-05-17), a small step treated as a test. The following Monday (2026-05-18), a second vessel, the Mihzem, laden with 178,000 cubic metres, made an apparent U-turn while attempting the transit, according to Kpler vessel-tracking data reported by Montel.1
Equinor's head of LNG told Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21) that the conflict and Hormuz blockade would likely delay the expected global LNG supply glut by two years. The surplus had been the dominant medium-term narrative for the market before March; the conflict has rewritten that outlook.4
The scale of what remains contingent is not small. Rystad Energy calculates that if Qatari infrastructure suffered limited damage and exports resumed after 15 days, annual global LNG output would fall by 4.3% this year. A one-month disruption pushes that loss above 14%. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies modelled a 12-month Hormuz blockade and found annual output falling around 15%, even with supply responses elsewhere, at a time when global LNG consumption was forecast to grow by nearly 8% in 2026.3
Markets appear to have accepted the prime minister's framing, at least for now. A bearish JKM signal, one of the few contrarian reads in a consensus that remains predominantly bullish across 13 directional signals, points to traders already positioning for the supply return rather than hedging against further disruption.
Whether that read holds depends on vessel movements, not statements. A sustained run of laden Qatari tankers through the Strait, rather than another about-face like the Mihzem, is what the next few weeks need to deliver before the prime minister's timeline translates into verified flows.1,6