CORSIA credits slide to $10 as VCM issuances rebound in May

CORSIA credits slide to $10 as VCM issuances rebound in May Supply growth outpaced demand despite a jump in retirements, pushing benchmark prices to a two-year low. Benchmark CORSIA carbon credits ended May around $10 per tonne, their lowest since June 2024, after sliding 22% during the month, Carbon Pulse reported on Tuesday (2026-06-09).³ That price decline came even as the voluntary carbon market showed signs of life. Issuances and retirements both rose year-on-year in May.³ But the supply side grew faster. The discrepancy suggests the market remains oversupplied despite stronger corporate retirement activity, a dynamic that kept bids anchored at the low end.³ The data underscores a persistent structural mismatch. Credit issuances have continued to flow from both nature-based and technology-driven projects, while demand from airlines under CORSIA and from voluntary corporate buyers has not absorbed the volume.³ The May price was last at this level during the summer of 2024, when the market was digesting a wave of new methodologies and scrutiny over credit quality.³ That history matters because buyers, particularly airlines needing CORSIA-compliant offsets, have shown discipline on price. Traders said the $10 threshold is emerging as a psychological floor, but no buyer has stepped in aggressively to defend it.³ On the issuance side, project developers continue to register credits at pace. Many of these were validated before recent price declines, locking in upfront costs that now look uneconomic at current market levels.³ Retirements, while up year-on-year, remain concentrated among a handful of large corporate buyers. The broader market of smaller offset purchasers has been slower to return, partly due to ongoing legal and reputational risks around nature-based credits in jurisdictions like India, where the new Carbon Credit Trading Scheme is still being implemented.² That matters for the direction of prices in the second half of the year. Without a broader demand base, supply could continue to weigh on the CORSIA benchmark.³ Meanwhile, regulated carbon markets are moving in a different direction. Governments globally raised $107 billion from carbon pricing in 2025, according to a report published on Friday (2026-05-22), up from prior years as both ETS revenues and carbon taxes grew.¹ That sum dwarfs the voluntary market. It also points to an increasing divergence between compliance-driven carbon costs — which are rising in Europe and other jurisdictions — and voluntary offset prices, which are falling.¹ For traders watching the voluntary space, the key question is whether the $10 level holds through the summer. If issuances continue to outrun retirements, the next leg lower could test the late-2024 lows near $8.³ A sustained move below that level would likely force project developers to slow new registrations, potentially rebalancing the market. But so far, there is no signal that is happening.³