Analysts Warn UK Gas Prices Could Return to 2022 Crisis Levels This Winter
Storage at a 15-year seasonal low, with Germany and the Netherlands sharply undersupplied as winter demand approaches.
UK wholesale gas prices risk returning to the extremes of the 2022 energy crisis this winter, analysts told Montel during the week of 2026-09-14, pointing to structural parallels with conditions in late 2021 before Russia's invasion of Ukraine severed large volumes of pipeline supply from the continent.7
The inventory position is the core of the concern. Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed European storage at roughly 66% of capacity by early September (2026-09-07), the lowest level for that time of year in 15 years and around 12 percentage points below the same point in 2025. Last year, storage peaked at 83% — about 85 billion cubic metres. Analysts at ROI put this year's likely peak at only 70% to 75%.4
The shortfall is concentrated in Europe's largest storage markets. Germany was 54% full and the Netherlands just 48% as of early September (2026-09-07), both well behind last year's pace. The European Commission has since relaxed its original winter storage target from 90% full by November to 80% by December, partly to avoid a surge of pre-winter buying that could push prices higher still.4,2
Wholesale prices have already registered the strain. ICE Endex TTF front-month futures spiked roughly 6% at the market open on Monday (2026-09-14), reaching around €80 per megawatt-hour after reports of a Saudi pipeline shutdown added to existing fears over Middle East LNG flows, Cryptobriefing reported. The contract had already touched its highest since late 2022 during the week of 2026-08-31, trading at €75 per MWh — more than double its level from a year earlier, Boereport noted.6,4
Since that spike, TTF front-month has eased. By Monday evening (2026-09-22), ICE Endex TTF front-month had settled at €73.37 per MWh. Prices are still more than 150% above where they traded before the most recent escalation of Middle East tensions, Cryptobriefing reported.6
Goldman Sachs argued in late August (2026-08-24) that European gas prices need to reach around €100 per MWh by December for storage to be adequately filled if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists and keeps Asian spot LNG prices elevated, Oilprice.com reported. That target is roughly 110% above the bank's own base case of €50 per MWh. Current TTF levels leave a gap of more than 35% to Goldman's stress-case figure.3
A cold snap would compress any cushion quickly. An analyst told Montel during the week of 2026-09-07 that a prolonged cold spell in the UK could push gas prices up by 60% from levels at that time, reaching the highest since the 2022 crisis.5
David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, described Europe's storage position as a "very risky situation," Reuters reported in early August (2026-08-05). The thin inventory buffer leaves prices exposed to sharp moves between November and March, especially if LNG flows from the Middle East remain constrained, analysts said.2,1
Not all market signals point toward a price shock. Contrarian indicators in TTF front-month markets lean bearish, with storage dynamics and geopolitical factors cited as potentially already priced in. The EU target reduction to 80% by December removes some of the official pressure for aggressive pre-winter buying, and a milder autumn could allow storage to partially recover before peak demand arrives.
Asian LNG adds competing pressure on the available pool of spot cargoes. Asian spot LNG prices on 2026-09-23 were $26.05 per MMBtu, keeping Asian buyers in direct competition with European importers at a time when Middle East-origin flows are already constrained. Until TTF rises far enough to pull flexible cargoes westward, the supply gap Goldman identified has no straightforward short-term resolution.3
Germany at 54% and the Netherlands at 48% are the numbers to watch most closely through October (2026). If early cold weather arrives before those figures recover meaningfully, the distance between current TTF levels and Goldman's €100 threshold could narrow faster than current bearish positioning implies.4