EU Retail Fuel Hits Records as Gas Storage Shortfall Extends Eurozone Inflation Into 2027
Diesel up 40% since February and gas stocks at a 15-year seasonal low are preventing the ECB from meeting its 2% inflation target before mid-2027.
Retail fuel prices in the European Union have reached all-time highs, with diesel up 40% on a weighted average basis since February and gasoline 29% higher over the same period, oilprice.com reported on Tuesday (2026-09-22). Those moves pushed eurozone energy inflation for August to 14.3%, the same report showed.6
The ECB's chief economist now expects the eurozone to approach the 2% inflation target only around the middle of next year, according to oilprice.com. That puts the inflation fight well into 2027 and signals that rate-setters will face sustained pressure from energy costs through at least the first half of next year.6
The supply picture underpinning both moves is stark. EU natural gas storage stood at 65.5% full in early September (2026-09-01), the lowest for that time of year in 15 years, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data published in the Financial Times. Stored volumes totalled roughly 742 terawatt-hours as of September 1, more than 20% below the five-year average. By August 6 (2026-08-06), Gas Infrastructure Europe data reported by Reuters showed stocks at just under 58% full, the lowest for that calendar date in records going back to 2011 and 12 percentage points behind the prior year. David Lewis, senior research analyst at Wood Mackenzie, called it "a very risky situation," Reuters reported.2,1
The deficit traces to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which squeezed global LNG supply and reduced cargo flows into European terminals. After the EU ended Russian pipeline imports, American LNG had accounted for up to 70% of the supply gap. That share fell below 50% in June (2026-06), Reuters reported, as Asian buyers outbid Europeans: the JKM benchmark stood at roughly $17.33 per million British thermal units in June, against a European price of roughly $13.19 per million British thermal units.2
European gas prices surged roughly 75% over the two months to early September, according to oilprice.com. The ICE Endex TTF front-month rose 2.7% to approximately €82 per megawatt-hour on September 9 (2026-09-09), Reuters reported, before easing to €73.27 per megawatt-hour by Tuesday (2026-09-22). The retreat has done little to close the storage gap.2,4,3
The European Commission in 2023 required member states to fill storage to 90% of capacity before each winter. That obligation was eased to 80% in April (2026-04) after a temporary ceasefire between Washington and Tehran brought prices down from a spike near €70 per megawatt-hour, and member states complained of the financial burden. The EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators had estimated restocking would require an additional 10 billion to 15 billion euros at a gas price of €50 per megawatt-hour — an assessment that understates the true cost at prices well above that level.2
Goldman Sachs said on September 17 (2026-09-17) that diesel margins will continue to expand as markets tighten, but identified gasoline as now offering "more upside price opportunities." Refiners have prioritized diesel output, leaving gasoline supply comparatively looser, and the bank switched its key fuel market preference accordingly, oilprice.com reported.5
Supply diversification is underway. Buyers are rapidly broadening their sourcing base, with Texas and Pennsylvania among the leading U.S. LNG export regions, oilprice.com noted on Tuesday (2026-09-22). But new sourcing takes months to translate into meaningful storage volumes.6
ICE Brent crude front-month was at $98.55 per barrel on Tuesday (2026-09-22). JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, stood at $25.99 per million British thermal units on Tuesday (2026-09-22), far above the $17.33 per million British thermal units that pulled cargoes away from Europe in June (2026-06). With European storage roughly 14 percentage points short of the eased 80% target and Asian prices still elevated, the injection rate over the next four weeks is the number that sets conditions for the European winter.2